who showed signs of mild distress(4) when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn(2), a time when their mothers' production of melatonin(3)—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy(5). Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness(4) during infancy and this shyness continues into later life(6). ★★★★
1. The sample of the mentioned study is too limited. (quantity of the sample) ★★★ 2. No direct evidence is provided to show that it is the high levels of mothers’ production of
Melatonin that resulted in the distress showed by the infants studied. (confusing concurrence with causality) ★★★★ 3. The author fails to prove that increased levels of mothers’ production of Melatonin will
directly affect their infants. (U.A) ★★★★ 4. The author simply equates mild distress with shyness. (U.C) ★★★★
5. Different individuals may define the term shy in various ways. (definition of the term ‘shy’)
★★★★ 6. Many other genetic or environmental factors will cause shyness in those teenagers. (I.T)
★★★★
25 infants,mild distress 论断：出生前某素的高含量会使婴儿害羞，而且这种害羞会继续。因为研究者在13年前对25个对陌生刺激表现敏感的婴儿进行了研究，发现他们比其他婴儿更多地在秋季怀上。而秋季母亲体内的影响大脑功能的某素产量会因为日光的下降而天然上升。如今这25名婴儿都十几岁了，今年一项跟踪调查发现他们大部分都认为自己很害羞。 ·论断忽略了一个前提，就是某素是否会导致婴儿害羞。论者没有提供任何对某素的科学研究，以说明某素的功能或是作用是什么。论者甚至没有提供资料证明某素是否会对婴儿产生影响。虽然论者说某素是一种对某些大脑功能有影响的荷尔蒙，但并没有告诉我们这种影响是对母亲，还是对胎儿。 ·论断的论据没有说服力。论断引用一项13年前对25个对陌生刺激反应敏感的婴儿的研究和今年的跟踪研究。但首先论者没有提供资料表明婴儿表现出来的敏感一下是因为害羞，我们不能排除这是因为刺激带来的生理上的不舒服。而在跟踪研究中，论者也没有提供有关这些孩子在这十几年里的生活环境的资料，我们不能排除环境对孩子性格的影响。 ·论断的结论很武断。论断某素的高含量会导致婴儿害羞，并在后面的生活中延续。但显然性格的形成有很多原因，后天的环境与经历也非常重要。结论：若要增加说服力，论者还需要提供有关科学研究资料，进一步说明某素对胎儿能造成什么样的影响。而且是否这种影响是永久的，无法消除的，论者也需要再进一步思考。
2. 51，（医疗/建议/对比）The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
\"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills(3), although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced(1,2). Therefore, all patients(4) who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics(5) as part of their treatment.\" ★★★★
1. The author does not inform us about the severity of injuries, physical conditions of the two
groups of patients. (I.C) ★★★★
2. There might be other differences between treatments offered by the two doctors.(I.C) ★★★★
3. Sugar pills may cause negative effects on the healing of the second group of patients. (I.T)
★★ 4. Not all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain will suffer from secondary
infections. (C.S) ★★★★ 5. Not all patients with muscle strain are suitable to taking antibiotics. (feasibility of the
conclusion) ★★★★
secondary infections,muscle strain 论断：要建议有肌肉拉伤的病人服用抗生素。因为医生最近证实二次感染会防碍病人快速康复。在一项对两组病人的研究中，第一组病人由专门从事体育药品的医生治疗，并在整个治疗中服用抗生素，他们比一般的病人快40%康复；第二组病人由普通医生治疗，尽管病人以为服用的是抗生素，但实际吃的是糖片，他们的康复时间没有明显下降。 ·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是二次感染一定会发生。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明二次感染会发生在肌肉拉伤的病人身上，或是这种病人容易发生二次感染。 ·论断引用的论据没有说服力。论断引用了一项分组研究。但是首先论者没有提供任何有关两组病人的资料。有关他们的年龄、性别以及其他生理特征。有可能服用抗生素的一组病人比较年轻，或是本身生理机能好，而不服用的一组病人可能都是体质弱的人。这样就不能说明是抗生素而不是其他原因使得病人康复快。另外两位医生的经验和水平也会影响病人康复的速度，一般来说运动医生会比普通医生更了解肌肉的问题，所以由他治疗的病人康复快，就不能排除是因为他的水平高或是治疗有针对性造成，这样也不能说明是抗生素使得病人康复快。第三，不服抗生素的一组食用了糖片，而论者没有给出资料证明这种糖片不会影响病人的康复。所以对这两组病人的研究并不能说明抗生素能使病人康复快。 ·论断太武断。论者由二次感染会防碍病人快速康复而认为要建议病人服用抗生素。但是抗生素除了会杀菌防止感染外，还可能会带来其他问题，比如副作用，也可能有的病人会对抗生素过敏。对于这些情况论者没有考虑进来。结论：为加强说服力，论者还应该进一步提供有关肌肉拉伤的病人中二次感染的概率有多少，并提供一份科学的研究，证明在相同医生、相同病征、相同病人生理条件以及其他治疗手段、环境相同的情况下，抗生素是能使病人早日康复。
3. 45, （动物/推测/并列）The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
\"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters(1), the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends(2) that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns(4) across the frozen sea(3).\" ★★★★★
1. The accuracy of the reports from local hunters can be cast doubt on. (selective sample) ★
★★★ 2. The global warming trends may have no effects on the specific region mentioned by the
editorial. (C.S) ★★★★ 3. Alternative explanations can also account for the decline in arctic deer population.(NCR)
★★★★ 4. The change in climate patterns does not necessarily lead to the decline in deer population,
deer may adapt themselves to the new weather by certain means. (NCR) ★★★★
Arctic deer 论断：鹿的数目下降的原因是气温上升。因为气温上升使得海上的冰融化，鹿无法按照传统在冰冻的海面上迁徒。他举例说，最近当地的猎人报告说鹿的数目在下降，而这种下降又伴随全球气温上升的趋势。 ·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是当地的气温的确在上升。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明当地的气温比以前高了。 ·得出论断的前提是鹿的数目的确在下降。但是论者仅用当地猎人的报告，不足以证明。因为很有可能猎人只是因为打不到鹿，而认为鹿数目在下降。但是这些猎人活动的时间、范围以及习惯是否与鹿相同都会影响到他们是否能看见鹿。 ·论断的另一个前提是，气温上升会导致鹿数目下降。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明如果气温上升，环境改变，鹿就会死亡。气温上升或许会使鹿生存的环境发生变化，它们的活动模式或许必需有所改变，但这些都不必造成鹿死亡。 ·论断引用的证据没有说服力。论断说鹿数目下降的同时伴随全球气温上升的趋势。但全球势趋不能代表本地状况，很有可能全球某些地方气温升高很快，使得全球气温上升，但本地的气温仍可能不变，甚至下降。 ·论者的结论很武断。他认为是气温上升改变了鹿的迁徒模式，而不是其他原因导致鹿数目下降。但是显然猎人是否有过度猎杀、鹿的某种食物最近是不是大面积减少等等都能使得鹿数目下降。结论：论者若要增加说服力，还因提供目前鹿数目的变化情况，以及当地气温是否有上升。另外鹿的生存环境是否还存在其他的威胁也需要调查。
4. 7, （政治经济，社会/提议/并列）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the
Clearview newspaper.
\"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council(3), because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled(1), air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses(2). If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved(4,5).\" ★★★148
1. The argument unfairly assumes that last year's increase in the number of factories was due
to the city council's decisions—rather than to some other phenomenon—and that this increase poses environmental problems for Clearview. (NCR) ★★★★ 2. The argument also assumes unfairly that last year's increase in the number of patients
reporting respiratory problems indicates worsening environmental problems in Clearview. (NCR) ★★★★
3. The editorial provides no evidence to substantiate the assumption that Braun was a factor in
the city council’s decisions. (I.I) ★★ 4. The mere fact that Green is a member of the Good Earth Coalition hardly suffices to prove
her willingness and ability to help solve Clearview's environmental problems. (I.E) ★★★★★
5. The author provides no firm evidence that electing Green is necessary to solve those
problems, or that electing Green would suffice. (necessity and sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
Clearview mayoral election 论断：选Ann Green，环境问题肯定能解决，因为他是Good Earth Coalition。论断认为人们没有选另一位政府成员是因为现在的环境太糟糕，污染非常严重。 ·论断太武断。论为选一位环境组织的成员当市长，环境污染问题就能解决。但实际上作为环境组织的成员只能表明他对环境很关注，而政府要解决污染问题，除了关心以外还会有大量具体工作要作。比如协调其他部门，比如对工业生产的了解等等，这些都不是出身就必然能具备的素质。论断没有提供该候选人的这方面资料。 ·论断不公平。说现行政府不关心保护环境，举例说是过去几年工厂的数目加倍，空气污染的程度在上升，而当地医院治疗的呼吸病患者也比以前多了25%。但是论断没有告诉我们新增的工厂是否是污染型产业，这些工厂有没有采取防止污染的措施，没有这种资料我们无法判断这些工厂对于环境污染的影响程度，因为很可能这些工厂是污染少的新兴产业，或是采取了有效措施。而说到空气污染的问题，一方面这是一个全球共同面临的状况，论断没有说明该市与其他相同特征的城市相比，或是与早前的历史相比，这个数字是大是小，从而无法判断，另一方面空气污染并不一定是因为该市自身的问题，因为风向的流动，污染有可能是从其他地方来的。而医院里呼吸病病人增多同样缺乏判断根据，呼吸病发生的原因很多，有天生的，有因为老化的，论断没有说明新增病人的病因是否因为污染引起。 ·论断对另一名候选人也很不公平。就算真像论断所说现行政府不关心环境，就认为他也不关心境。论断没有提供该候选人是否有破坏环境的纪录，是否曾促进一些破坏环境的措施。因为不能排除他也很关心环境保护，只是他的声音被政府其他声音所淹没。结论：论断非常不公平也很武断。他既没有提供候选人在解决
环境问题上的成果和能力，也没有提供任何可以证明现行政府以及另一候选人不关心环境的证据。如果要号召选民们同意他的意见，他还需要进一步提供这方面的资料。
5. 35, （食品，保健/预言/并列）The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches
suffered by the residents of Mentia.
\"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches(1). Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study(2). Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods(3). With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia.(4,5)\" ★★★★
1. Salicylates may not have the same effect as aspirin in treating headaches although they
are of the same chemical family. (F.A) ★★★★ 2. Other factors may also lead to the decline in the number of headaches in the study
mentioned above. (NCR) ★★★★★ 3. The author does not inform us what fraction of foods consumed by citizens of Mentia
contains salicylates, and how many of the citizens prefer such kind of foods. (I.I) ★★★ 4. The author fails to consider factors other than food, such as environment, lifestyle, etc.
that may result in the increase in the number of headaches suffered by citizens of Mentia would increase (I.T) ★★★
5. Granted that salicylates are effective in treating headaches, we cannot hastily infer that
they would also be effective in preventing headaches. (U.C) ★★★
headaches，residents of Mentia 论断：S的新用途会继续平稳地降低居民平均头疼。因为S与阿斯匹林同属一个化学家庭。过去几十年中食品公司把S做为防腐剂添加到食品中，一项长达二十年的研究发现这种商业用途的增加伴随着头疼报告的下降。 ·论断的前提不被必然保证。论断的前提是S能治疗或降低头疼。但是论者并没有提供有关的科学研究以证明S具有这样的作用。虽然论者说S与阿斯匹林同属一个化学家庭，但这只能说明他们的化学结构相近，并不能保证必然具有与阿斯匹林一样的作用。 ·论断的论据不具备说服力。论断引用一份二十年的研究，这份研究说在S被食品商用于防腐剂的年代里，研究中报告头疼的人少了。首先论者没能排除有人头疼但没报告的可能性。其次是他也没能排除其他因素导致头疼下降的可能，比如医学发达，环境质量好了，人们生活规律了等等。这都不能说明S的食用降低了头疼的发生。 ·论者的结论非常武断。他认为头疼还会有持续稳步下降，但就算S真能影响头疼也还可能会有其他因素导致头疼上升，比如生活节奏加快、工作压力突然加大等等。另外如果S对头疼有作用，是否是越多越好，论断也没有给出依据。结论：论者所做的结论很武断，论者若想增加说服力还应该提供具体关于S的医疗作用的研究。
6. 188, （医药卫生/建议/对比）A new report suggests that men and women experience pain
very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications(3). When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids—a painkiller—to 28 men and 20 women(1) who were having their wisdom teeth extracted, the women reported(5) feeling much less pain than the men, and the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women(2). This research suggests that kappa opioids should be
prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required(4), whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication(6). In addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications(7) on men versus women.★★200
1. The number of subjects might be insufficient to constitute a representative sample.
(quantity of the sample) ★★★
2. Other differences between those men and women could also explain the difference
between their feelings on pain. (I.C) ★★★★ 3. The effect of kappa opioids on pain feeling could not be hastily generalized to all other
pain medications. (C.S) ★★★★ 4. The effect of kappa opioids on patients who have their wisdom teeth extracted could not
be hastily generalized to all conditions where pain medication is required. (C.S) ★★★ 5. The level of pain reported by the patients may not reflect their actual level of pain. (U.C)
★★★ 6. Without more information concerning the thorough effect of kappa opioids, and lacking
comparison between the effectiveness of kappa opiods and other available pain medications, we cannot conclude that it is not suitable for all male patients merely based on the fact cited above. (adv:disadv/confusing comparison and variation) ★★★ 7. Granted that pain medications should be prescribed discriminatingly, the necessity of
reevaluating the effects of all medications on men versus women is unwarranted. (C.S/necessity of the solution) ★★★★
men and women experience pain very differently from one another 论断：只要止痛药需要就要给女的开K，而男的应该开别的药。另外研究者应该对所有药对于男女不同的效果重新评估。因为一份新的报告显示，男女对痛的经历非常不同，医生应该考虑给他们开不同的止痛药。研究中给在拨智齿的28个男人和20个女人开同样剂量的K，女的比男的少说痛，而且药效女的也明显长一些。 ·前提，K对女的有效，对男的没效。拨牙一项不能代表所有的情况。 ·前提，男女对疼痛的经历不同，没有直接证据证明。而·论据，问题多。首先，人太少，没有代表性。其次，也许不是性别带来的不同，而是其他体质上的问题。没有说是否每一个女人都比每一个男人少说痛。第三，心理影响。报告的痛有心理作用，而医学关心的止痛是生理问题。不排除女的意志力坚强，所以少说痛。 ·就算男女对K的经历不一样，没有理由存在需要对所有的药都重新评估。
7. 161, （社会/论断/对比）In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the
University of Leeville, most respondents(1) said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study(4,5) conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out(2) of each of the public libraries(6) in Leeville was the mystery novel(3). Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits(7). ★★★
1. We do not know how many, and what kind of citizens responded to the survey, thus the
representativeness of the result is open to doubt. (are the respondents representative?) ★
★★
2. The frequency of certain type of book being checked out from the public libraries is not a
good indication of what kind of reading material do citizens prefer. (U.C) ★★★★
3. The author does not analyze to what extent the literary classics and mystery novels
mentioned in the argument overlap. (I.I) ★★★★ 4. The author fails to provide evidence to show that the result of the follow-up study is
representative of all-time reading habits of Leeville citizens. (C→F) ★★★ 5. We do not know how long is the interim period between the two studies, many conditions
may change after sufficient long time.(P→C) ★★★★ 6. The author unfairly assumes that the respondents in the first study borrow most of their
reading materials from public libraries. (U.A) ★★★ 7. The author fails to consider other explanation that could explain the discrepancy between
the respondents’ answer and the result of the follow-up study, e.g. if the respondents were forthright, if they correctly understood the survey’s question, etc. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
reading habits of Leeville citizens 论断：居民不是最爱看古典文学。一项由L校进行的该地区居民阅读习惯研究中，大多数被访者说他们最爱看古典文学。但是他们随后进行的研究又发现该地区每个公共图书馆里最常被借的是神话小说。 ·古典文学里有很多都是神话小说。奥德赛，希望神话都是古典小说。 First at all , the mystery novels can also be literary classics. The arguer undercounted the scope of \"literary classics\" . in fact, all book write by writers past and made great successes in readers can be called \"literary classics\such as the \"Odessey\" and \"Greek Mysterious story\" have long been considered as literary classics. Moreover, each reader has his/her own concept about \"literary classicshe arguer's conclusion about they had misrepresented theri reading habits is unfounded. ·公共图书馆不是唯一的书源。可以买，可以去私人图书馆。有可能是因为公共图书馆里古典小说藏量不丰富，或是神话小说过多而造成的。人们只是顺便借来看看。 ·第二次研究时间多长，有可能只是暂时现象。比如流行。
8. 169, （人事，学校建设/提议/类比）The following appeared in a letter from a department
chairperson to the president of Pierce University.
\"Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier(1) living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most(5) gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire(3) staff(5), we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire(2,4,7,9). Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent(6) because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers(8).\" ★★
1. The fact that professors are happier living in small towns might be due to other factors,
but not because they are living together with their spouses. (NCR) ★★ 2. The chairperson fails to consider the possible differences between Bronston College and
Pierce University, thus merely copying Bronston’s activity may not be same effective at Pierce. (F.A) ★★★
3. The chairperson fails to point out what fraction of our faculty will be new members, thus
the assumption that the morale of entire staff could be improved is open to doubt. (I.I/U.A) ★★★
4. The chairperson fails to consider many other relevant factors that may influence new
professors’ decision. (I.T/sufficiency of the solution) ★★★★ 5. Even if the proposed actions are effective in attracting new professors, we cannot
guarantee that the action will attract the most gifted teachers and researchers, and necessarily improving the morale of stuff. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★ 6. The chairperson does not analyze the cost of the proposed actions, hence we cannot
evaluate if the new professors attracted by the action are worthy of the investment. (adv:disadv) ★★★ 7. The chairperson fails to consider if the university has the capability of offering
employment to the spouse of every new faculty member. (feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★★ 8. The chairperson fails to illustrate that new gifted professors will not accept our offers if
we do not offer such employment. (necessity of the solution) ★★★ 9. The chairperson overlooks other better ways to achieve the same result. (necessity of the
solution) ★★
professors happier living when spouses in the same geographic area 论断：为吸引最有才能的老师和研究者来我们学校并提高整体员工的士气，我们应该给每位新员工的配偶提供工作机会。因为如果配偶有工作的机会，新教授会更愿意来我们这儿。尽管不可能所有位子都被接受或是看成理想的选择，花在这上的钱也会很值。一个也在小城市的B校的研究发现，男女教授都会更快乐地生活在小镇上，当他们的配偶也在同一个地区工作时。 B校的研究描述不清楚，无法判断是否在一起生活会比不在一起生活更快乐，所以无法判断是否准确。但另外推论中也同样有问题。 ·提高士气，愉快的夫妻生活不保证高的士气，校风，工作，工
资都很重要 ·在一起生活愉快，但没有证据证明配偶的工作地点是教授们选择工作的唯一或重要标准。所以不一定更吸引人。 ·如果这笔花费不小，就不能给每个新员工都提供。 ·最有才能的？
9. 203, （医疗卫生/论断/对比）The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.
\"At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days(2); at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days(1). Also, the cure rate(2) among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice(3) that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient(5) than the hospital in
Megaville, and there are few complaints(6) about service at the local hospital(4). Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals(8) is more economical(7) and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals.\" ★★
1. The time length of a patient’s stay is not a good indication of the quality of treatment in
the hospital. (U.C) ★★★★ 2. Other factors might also explain the shorter length of patient stay and higher cure rate in
the Saluda hospital. (I.C) ★★★★★ 3. We do not know the severity of illness among patients in the Saluda hospital and in
Megaville hospital, thus cannot evaluate the cure rate in the two hospitals. (I.I) ★★★★ 4. More employees per patient and few complaints do not necessarily indicate that treatment
in Saluda hospital is better than that in Megaville hospital. (U.C) ★★★★ 5. A higher employee-patient ratio may just indicate organizational inefficiency at Saluda.
(negative evidence) ★★★
6. Without the total number of patients going to each hospital, we cannot evaluate what
percentage of their patients complained. (V.D) ★★★ 7. The author fails to provide the actual expenditures of patients in the two hospitals, thus
the assumption that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospital is more economical is unwarranted. (I.I) ★★
8. The author hastily generalizes that treatment in other smaller, nonprofit hospitals will
necessarily be more economical and of better quality than that in larger, for-profit hospitals. (C.S) ★★★★
nonprofit hospital 论断：小的非赢利医院的治疗比大的赢利医院更经济质量也更好。因为S的非营利医院病人的平均住院天数是两天，附近M市大的营利医院的平均住院天数是六天。另外，S的疗愈率是M的两倍。S每位医生看的病人也比M的多，抱怨也少。 ·前提，治疗质量。没有直接的对比数字，无法得出。提供的住院天数没有意义。重病的人一般去大医院，而且由于S是非营利的，对资源使用控制并不完全视病情需要，不排除有可能病人没好就让人走人。 ·前提，经济。乍一看有可能，因为S不赢利，M赢利，不过如果把治疗效果考虑进来，情况就要复杂一些。提供的每位医生看病人的比较没有意义。因为S没有钱支付更多的人员工资，所以每个人看的病人多，每位病人得到的治疗少，但又不能保证医生水平会比M高，所以这一点是不被保证的。 ·抱怨，因为不知道两家医院接待病人的情况所以
无从比较。另外，S非营利可能，病人也就不抱怨了，或者是穷人，不愿惹麻烦。而M就不一样了，因为营利，人们对它会挑剔一些。
10. 209, （人事/提议/——）The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources
Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
\"In the last three quarters of this year(1), under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably(2). Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings(6,7). Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry(4), a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years(3). Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably(5).\" ★★26,85,140,225
1. The manager fails to illustrate that the decreased profits in the last three quarters are not
temporary fluctuation but will continue in the future. (P→F) ★★★ 2. Many other factors could also contribute to the decline in the profits of Fancy Toy
Company. (NCR) ★★★★ 3. The manager unfairly attributes the increased profits of Starlight Jewelry to the leadership
of Rosa Winnings. (NCR) ★★★★ 4. Even if Rosa is highly competent in her current position, we could not ensure that she can
also do an excellent job as the manager of the toy company. (F.A) ★★★★ 5. The company’s profits will not necessarily increase merely because the replacement of the
manager. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★★ 6. The manager fails to consider if Rosa is willing to accept the offer. (feasibility of the
conclusion) ★★ 7. The manager fails to inform us if there are any other competent candidates we can choose
from. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
Fancy Toy Company 论断：我们应任命R，并要求P辞职。因为尽管R的薪水是P的两倍，但他会使我们的利润迅速显著上升。而在过去3个季度里，现任总裁P的领导下，我们的利润下降明显。R现在是S珠宝店的头，这家公司的利润在过去几年里一直急剧增加。 ·被忽略的前提，R会来这儿。这儿效益这么不好。 ·前提，R能使我们的利润迅速上升。没有直接的证据证明R对我们公司的情况了解并有很好的建议。而关于他在珠宝店的业绩不说明问题：首先行业不同，其次珠宝店的成绩不是他一人的，员工的作用。 ·前提，P的能力不行。首先3个季度的工作没有说服力。其次，利润下滑不是他一个人的原因。可能是以前留下的隐患。第三，没准下滑是暂时的，他采取了一些措施，效果在长期。 ·结论：R薪水是P的两倍，利润能增长多少却不知道。
11. 238, （就业/提议/对比）The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of
Mira Vista College to the college's board of trustees.
\"At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more(1) job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year's graduating seniors had job offers(4) from prospective employers(5). But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment(2) had found full-time jobs(4) within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study(3). To help Mira Vista's graduates find employment(8), we must offer more courses in business and computer technology(6) and hire additional job counselors(7) to help students with their resumés and interviewing skills.\" ★★9,211
1. The president fails to inform us the total amount of students at each college, thus we
cannot compare the number of job counselors per student. (V.D/I.C) ★★★ 2. The survey does not include all the graduates in MVC, thus it is impossible to evaluate
the employment result in MVC. (selective sample) ★★★★
3. The comparison between GMC and MVC is incomplete, many other factors would
contribute to the differences in the employment results of the two colleges. (I.C) ★★★
★★
4. Without further description of the job offers received by graduating seniors of the two
colleges, we cannot evaluate if Mira Vista's job-placement record is comparatively poor. (I.I) ★★★★
5. The president fails to establish the causal relationship between the fact that GMC has
more business courses and job counselors than MVC and the fact that 90% of last year’s graduating seniors from GMC got job offers.(confusing concurrence with causality) ★★★★★ 6. The president fails to convince us that offering more courses in computer technology will
necessarily contribute to the employment of graduates in MVC. (I.E) ★ 7. GMC and MVC might not be comparable in several aspects such as reputation, ranking,
alumni, etc. (F.A) ★★★★ 8. The proposed actions might be neither sufficient nor necessary for Mira Vista to improve
its employment result. (sufficiency/necessity of the solution) ★★★
more business courses and more job counselors 论断：我们必须提供更多的商业课和计算机技术，并雇用更多的职业顾问帮助学生做好简历和面见技巧。因为隔壁的G校比我们多有这些多西，去年他们90%的毕业生从潜在雇主那里拿到了工作offer，不过M只有70%报告办公室会去找工作的高年级学生在毕业后三个月里找到了全职工作，而且只有一半的学生工作与专业相关。 ·前提，我们的学生不好找工作。首先70%和90%不说明问题，学生数目如果相差很大的话。其次，M校的学生拿到OFFER，没说去，可能工作很不好。而我们学校的学生70%找到的都是好工作。 ·前提，提供商业课程会使学生好找工作。没有证据证明找到工作的学生是因为商业课程多。如果说毕业生大多工作与专业不对口，在一家企业工作是否就是从商呢？那要是卖书的公司，算是在干什么的。M校可能是商科学校，而我们主要是理科。事实上专业不同对课程需要也是不同。 ·结论：雇用职业顾问可能能够使学生更好地
表现自己，但很多不是面试技巧和简历能解决的。还得看实力。
12. 14, （商业/决策/先并列后递进）The following appeared in a memo from the owner of
Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
\"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey(1) conducted last month indicated that many consumers(3) were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand(6) three months in a row(4,5). Thus, we at Green Thumb
Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners(2) this coming spring(7).\" ★★1,40, 117, 219
1. The argument depends on a dubious assumption that the national levels of satisfaction with
store-bought groceries could reflects the level of a certain area. (C.S) ★★★★ 2. The argument falsely assumes that consumers who are dissatisfied with store-bought groceries
are likely to grow their own vegetables instead. (U.A/I.E) ★★★★★ 3. The arguer fails to provide any information about what fraction of consumers buy their
vegetables from supermarkets. (V.D/selective sample) ★★ 4. The arguer fails to convince us that the gardening magazine Great Gardens is indeed
popular among residents. (I.I) ★★ 5. We do not know the content and circulation of the magazine, thus the fact that the
magazine has sold out three months in a row does not necessarily indicate that people in this area are interested in planting vegetables themselves. (I.I/I.E) ★★★
6. The situation at one certain news stand does not prove that people in this area are
interested in gardening. (quantity of the sample) ★★★ 7. The arguer fails to consider the possible cost of the proposed action. (I.T/adv:disadv) ★
★★★
Green Thumb Gardening Center,growing their own vegetables 论断：大量扩大蔬菜种子的储存种类，就能提高赢利。因为有证据表明消费者对于自己种蔬菜越来越有兴趣，他举例说当种的一种农艺杂志很有市场。另外他说，一项全国性调查显示消费者对于超市里蔬菜的质量不满意，以说明为什么人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣。 ·论断的前提人们愿意来这儿买种子自己回家种蔬菜。论者举例说当地有一种农艺杂志三个月里很快卖光，他认为这是人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣的一个证明。但实际上农艺杂志的内容是什么，论者没有告诉我们，买这本杂志的人目的是什么，是为种菜吗？还是为了美化自己的花园去种花？如果杂志里有关种蔬菜的内容非常少，就不足以说明人们对于自己种蔬菜感趣。另外论者甚至没有提供这份杂志的具体销量，仅说它很快卖光。要知道，杂志发行量若很小的话，不需要有很多人对它感兴趣也能有这样的效果。 ·为了说明人们为什么会对自己种蔬菜感兴趣，论者提到了一份全国性的调查，这份调查表明人们对于超市里蔬菜不满意。但这个论据首先是不合适的。一份全国性调查并不能说明一个城郊地区的状况。因为很有可能这份全国性的调查主要集中在大城市，被调查的人也都是住市中心的人，在那里超市可能是他们购买蔬菜的最主要途径。但这显然与一个城郊地区的特征不符，这里的人很可能比城市里的人更容易买到新鲜、
好的蔬菜，而且他们也不像城市里那样依赖超市，还有杂货店甚至是农场。另外对于超市里的蔬菜不满意，也不必然带来自己种菜，这将花费人们大量的时间和精力，论断没有说这份调查是否表明不满意超市蔬菜的人都想自己种菜。 ·论断认为扩弃种子种类就会带来营利，也犯了一个常识性错误，太过武断。如果说种类多顾客挑选余地大，更容易更多地购买，那么其中的成本问题论者没有提供。是不是具体多几种肯定会有市场的种类会更好一些？扩充种类必然会增加成本，那么相应的赢利就会被抵销。这其中的细节问题论者都没有考虑到，武断得出结论很有可能造成失败。结论：论者没有调查清楚人们对于园艺的兴趣是什么，又引用了一份不合适的调查来支持他的观点，得出的结论必然是错误的。要想让人们接受他的建议，论者还需要提供关于愿意自己种蔬菜的人有多少，他们为什么这么做，并对市场有更进一步的了解，究意什么样的种类更吸引人。
13. 137, （城市，生活休闲/预言/递进+并列）The following appeared in an editorial in the
Mason City newspaper.
\"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough(1). But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River(2). Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase(3), so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements(5) to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River(4).\" ★★
1. The author simply assumes that it is the quality of the water in Mason River that prevents
residents from using it for recreational activities. (NCR) ★★★★ 2. No evidence could illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed plan, and how much time
would it take for the plan to be effective, thus we cannot ensure that recreational use of the river will automatically increase. (I.I) ★★★★★
3. The author fails to consider if Mason River is suitable for those water sports favored by
residents in Mason, and if residents are willing to use the river for recreational activities. (feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★★ 4. Granted that recreational use of the river is to increase, we are not convinced that the use of
the publicly owned lands along the river will also increase. (U.A/H.G) ★★★ 5. The author does not provide evidence to illustrate the necessity of increasing budget for
improvement s to the public lands. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
use the River for recreational activity 论断：政府需要为河边的公共场所的改善增加支出，因为河上娱乐可能会上升。目前居民很少用河进行娱乐，尽管对他们的调查一直说这是他们最喜欢的娱乐方式。由于一直有关于河水质量的抱怨，居民必须避开河水。不过这种情况会有改变，负责我们这个区的机构宣布了清理河的计划。 ·前提，河水干净了河上娱乐会上升。尽管论者本地居民一直把水上运动列为他们最喜欢的运动，但由于长时间很少有人使用它，我们并不知道居民是否愿意在M河上进行这种娱乐。
M河有可能不适合。
·前提，河水会干净。机构宣布了计划，不一定河水就能干净，污染程度，还有工作效率，都不一定能达到标准。 ·结论，公共场所需要改进吗？不一定吧。
结论：这篇社论没有了解当地情况，也不知道前景如何，政府的决策还需考虑。
14. 20，（交通安全/提议/类比）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer
Island Gazette.
\"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians(4), the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies(5) from 50 per day to 30 per day(6) during the summer season(7). By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents(1,4) that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau(3), when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals(2).\" ★★★★
1. The author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the rate of
moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the restrictions are enacted. (P→F) ★★★ 2. The author fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50% decline in Torseau's
moped accident rate last year. (NCR) ★★★★
3. Balmer Island and Torseau may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★★★
4. The author provides no evidence that the same restrictions that served to reduce the
incidence of all \"moped accidents\" by 50% would also serve to reduce the incidence of accidents involving \"mopeds and pedestrians\" by 50%. (U.C) ★★★ 5. We do not know what percentage of mopeds in Balmer Island is rented by the six
companies. (V.D) ★★★ 6. The author fails to provide accurate data about the current number of mopeds rented by
the six companies per day. (I.I) ★★ 7. The proposed regulation may not be necessary for the author’s purpose. (necessity of the
solution) ★★★
Balmer Island,moped 结论：降低租车数量，镇里的事故会减少50%。因为隔壁去年这样做取得了这样的成绩。 ·论断的前提是采取措施降低事故是有必要的，但这样的情况却在论断中看不到。论者没有提供任何有关镇里事故的资料，甚至没有说镇里有没有这样的事故，数量是多少，造成的危害是什么。因为不像汽车，这种事故一般都不会严重，而从论断中我们看不到有这样做的必要。 ·论断还有一个前提是出事故的车主要是租来的车，这非常不公平。如果说镇里的事故需要解决，也不能只简单地限制租车数量。镇里有多少这种车，出事故的有多少是租来的车，这此论断都没提供。如果说事故主要是自己的车，那么这种做法会影响公司利润，会引来他们不满。 ·论断的前提中还有一个漏洞，就是他认为6家租车公司每天的租车量都超过了30，但这也没被论断所保证。论断没有提供目前实际每家的租车数量，
如果说目前每家的租车数还不足30，那么就算真有事故，也不可能因此而有所减少。 ·论断引用的论据是他人成功经验，但这种成功并不必然出现在这里。论据没有提供任何有关两地面临的问题是否相同，也没有提供他们的事故与我们相比是多是少。如果说降低50%以后他们的事故仍比我们多，显然就不具备可借鉴。结论：论断缺乏对事故及其当地情况的基本了解，仅凭他人经验就提出建议非常荒谬。要想说服，还需要提供当地事故数量、危害以及租来车的事故多少等等。
15. 65, （商业/决策/并列）The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of
cheese stores located throughout the United States.
\"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year(1), however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store(2) were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers(3). Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way(4) to improve profits(6) in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese(5) and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.\" ★★★
1. The situation last year may be unusual, it does not indicate that domestic cheddar cheeses
will also be popular in the future. (P→F) ★★★ 2. The situation at the newest store might not be representative of all stores. (selective
sample/C.S) ★★★★ 3. The president does not provide any information about the subscribers of Cheese of the
World, thus they may not be representative of United States consumers. (are the respondents representative?) ★★★★
4. Many other better ways might be available to improve profits of our stores. (necessity of
the solution) ★★★ 5. The president fails to consider the negative effects of discontinuing the inventory of
imported cheeses. (adv:disadv) ★★★★
6. The president does not provide any information about the actual profit of domestic and
imported cheese respectively, thus we cannot evaluate the president’s conclusion. (I.I) ★★★★★
cheese stores, 论断：提高我们所有商店利润的最好办法就是停止储存很多种进口奶酪，而主要集中在国产之士上。因为这样可以降低存货费用。新开的几家商店里去年卖得最好的五种之士都是从W进的某之士，而且之士世界杂志的一份最新调查显示，对国产之士的偏爱在他的订阅者中上升。 ·论断前提不一定成立。前提是这样做能使我们所有商店的利润提高。但是论者没有提供任何资料使得这个前提必然成立。他既没有提供所有商店的国产奶酪销售情况，也没有提供我们顾客对于奶酪选择的偏爱。 ·论断的论据没有说服力。首先新开的几家商店的情况不能说明所有商店，也许他们开在W，或是那儿的人们与W的联系特别紧密。其次卖得最好不能说明利润最高，因为有可能是它们价格特别低，另外新开业卖得好不代表以后也会好，可能这几个牌子最近在做促销活动，这样势头不会保持。 ·关于杂志的调查。
首先杂志的订阅人数是多少，如果看的人少这份调查就没有代表性。另外什么人订这份杂志，如果它的主要客户不是顾客而是研究之士制造或是销售的人，那么也不能说明顾客中有偏爱国产之士。第三，调查是否公正，我们不排除偏爱进口奶酪的订者没有寄回问卷，或者就没有订这份杂志。 ·论者结论武断：提高利润的办法还有很多，论者没有提供资料证明这个就比别的好。结论：论者的结论很仓促，没有仔细研究调查的科学性，也没有考虑到新开店的经验是否具有代表性，仓促做出结论可能会导致商店决策错误。
16. 127, （管理/提议/——）The vice president for human resources at Climpson Industries sent
the following recommendation to the company's president.
\"In an effort to improve our employees' productivity(1), we should implement electronic
monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet from their workstations(3) need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities(2), such as shopping or playing games(4). By installing software(6) to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic(5) at Climpson, and improve our overall profits(7).\" ★★★
1. The vice president fails to provide any information about current performance and
productivity of our employees, thus the assumption that their productivity should be and could be improved is open to doubt. (I.I/U.A/necessity of the solution) ★★
2. The vice president unfairly assumes that most of our employees use internet for personal or
recreational activities. (U.A/I.I/necessity of the solution) ★★★ 3. The vice president ignores the necessity for some employees to use the Internet in their
work. (adv:disadv) ★★★★
4. Employees could still spend much time on personal or recreational activities even though
the Internet access is banned. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★★★ 5. The vice president overlooks the negative effects of the proposed activity on employees’
morale, thus the better work ethic mentioned above is not guaranteed. (adv:disadv) ★★★★★
6. The vice president fails to consider possible negative effects of installing such software on
the performance of computers, and fails to provide the cost of installing the software. (adv:disadv) ★★★
7. Since Climpson’s profits would be determined by many factors, adopting the proposal may
not sufficiently ensure greater profits. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
electronic monitoring of employees' Internet 论断：在公司的电脑上装监测员工因特网使用的软件，可以提高我们整体的利润。因为我们可以防止员工浪费时间，促进好的工作态度。如果想降低员工在工作中花在私事和娱乐活动上的时间，在工作间使用因特网的员工就应该被查出来被并处罚。（都是前提不成立） ·装软件可以防止员工浪费时。也许确实可以防止员工在上班期间使用因特网干私事和玩游戏，但不能保证员工通过其他途径的私事和娱乐时间不会上升。比如会有人不能在因特网上买东西了，他就会在上班时间溜出办公事出商场买。 ·减少干私事可以促进好的工作态度和效率。论者没有提供目前员工的工作态度如何，
私事和娱乐是否已经影响到了他们的工作效果。如果工作不是很多，员工少量的私事和娱乐也许不会影响他们的工作。但公司通过这种监测方式，监测员工的行为，倒有可能引起员工的不满，尽管不表达，这样有可能会使他们消极怠工。 ·结论值得怀疑，装软件是否会影响电脑的运行，软件的花费的是多少，论者没有提供资料。如果电脑工作的速度会下降，软件的花费过大，也不能提高我们整体的利润。而且利润的上升牵扯到成本、业绩等等内容，不是工作态度好了，就可以上升的。结论：论者没有资料证明目前员工的工作效率和态度已经影响到了公司的运行，所以我们无法判断是否有必要这种对员工行为的进行监测。而监测是否能够促进工作态度也值得怀疑，这样的建议还需要更多的考虑。
17. 186, （生产，管理/预言/对比）The following is a recommendation from the director of
personnel to the president of Professional Printing Company.
\"In a recent telephone survey(1) of automobile factory workers, older employees were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their productivity. Among workers aged 18 to 29, 27 percent said that they are more productive in the presence of their immediate supervisor, compared to 12 percent for those aged 30 or over, and only 8 percent for those aged 50 or over(2). Clearly, if our printing company(3) hires mainly older employees(4), we will increase productivity and save money because of the reduced need for supervisors.\" ★★★★
1. Since the survey is a telephone survey, the reliability of its result is suspicious at many
aspects, e.g. the size of the sample, who responded to the survey, if the respondents could
exactly understand the questions, if the respondents were forthright when answering the questions, etc.(reliability of the survey) ★★★
2. The director fails to make any comparison between the actual productivity of different
groups of employees. (confusing comparison and variation/I.C) ★★★★ 3. The automobile industry may not be comparable with a printing company. (F.A) ★★★ 4. The director fails to consider many negative effects of hiring mainly older employees.
(adv:disadv) ★★★★★
older employees were less likely having a supervisor 论断：我们印刷公司主要雇用老员工的话，将提高生产率并省下雇指导员的钱。因为一份对汽车工人的电话调查里，老的员工比较少报告当指导员在现场时会提高他们的生产力。 ·前提，省钱。老工人一般要求的工资都比年轻人高，指导员的钱省下来了，工资却得长。 ·前提，提高生产力。没有证据证明年轻人的生产力比老工人的低，不管在不在场的问题。而且年轻人一般体力好，少得病，少乱七八糟的事。 ·论据，太弱。首先，电话调查查的范围，各有多少人，是否准确。其次，调查里没指导员时年轻人的生产力还有可能比老工人高，尽管有人在场时会更高。 ·结论：两家公司工作不一样，员工要求不一样，没有可比性。
18. 18, （道路交通/提议/大并列小类比小递进）The following appeared in an editorial in a
Prunty County newspaper.
\"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently(1) lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit(4) and the accident rate throughout Prunty County (2)has decreased only slightly(3). If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago(7): increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads(8). Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported(6) accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago(5).\" ★★★★55,119
1. The author fails to rule out the possibility that not enough time has passed to determine the
effectiveness of this change in reducing the accident rate. (I.E) ★★★ 2. The author ignores the possibility that the accident rate on the county's major roads has
decreased while on minor roads not subject to the speed-limit reduction it has increased. (I.I) ★★★★ 3. The argument assumes that all other factors affecting highway accident rates have remained
unchanged since the county lowered its speed limit. (P→F) ★★★ 4. The fact that most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit does not indicate that the policy
is ineffective. (NCR) ★★ 5. The author unfairly implies that the higher speed limit in Butler County has not served to
increase the incidence of road accidents in that county. (lack of controlled experiment) ★
★★
6. The cited statistic involves only \"reported\" accidents in Butler County, we do not know
the percentage of accidents which are going unreported in that county. (I.I) ★★★ 7. The situation at Prunty County and Butler County may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★★
★ 8. The author fails to demonstrate that road improvement will be both sufficient and
necessary to guarantee fewer accidents in Prunty County. (sufficiency/necessity of the solution) ★★★★
9. Prunty County， highway safety 论断：要想提高道路安全，就必需改善路况。因为
另一个城市五年前这么做了，他们去年的事故记录比五年低了25%。而该市最近采取的限速措施并不成功，应该取销。因为大多数司机的速度都超过这个限制，事故发生率也只是降低了一点。 ·论断的前提是改善路况有必要，但论断中没有资料支持这一点。该市的路况是不是很糟，事故发生的主要原因是不是因为路况不好，这些论者都没有提供资料。如果说该市的路况好，事故发生的原因主要是因为超速，那么论断的前提显然就不成立。论断要求改善路况也就没有根据。 ·论断引用的论据是另一个城市的经验，并说明他们取得了成功。但论者没有告诉我们该市五年前面临的情况，比如道路状况比如事故原因与我们是否相同，也没有告诉我们他们的事故发生率是多少。如果说该市五年前的发生率非常高，现在降低25%以后还是比我们高，那么他们的经验就不值得我们借鉴。 ·论断认为我们限速的措施不成功，
这一点很不公平。论断说现在大多数的司机速度都在新的限速之上，这说明不是限速的措施本身不成功，而是因为司机没有遵守新的措施而导致事故。为此合理的做法应该是加强监督，保证司机遵守新的限速。而措施是新近实施的，短时间里，又在很多人没遵守的前提下已经小量降低了事故发生率，这说明措施还是有效的。结论：改善路况当然是件好事，但这是不是问题的关键所在？论者要说服我们接受他的观点，他还应该进一步提供有关我们道路状况的资料，以及有多少事故发生原因是因为道路不好，而对于限速的措施则应该加强监督确保落实。
19. 56, （艺术，考古/推测，预言/递进）Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of
human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali(1), we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues(2,3). This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures(4). It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found(5). In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value(6). ★★★★★
1. The recently discovered molds of human heads and hands are not necessarily used by
Kalinese artists for sculpting. (U.A) ★★★★
2. Granted those molds were used for sculpture purpose, we cannot hastily conclude that
Kalinese artist also use molds to create all life-size statues. (H.G) ★★★★ 3. No sufficient evidence is provided to prove that Kalinese artists did not use any sculpting
tools and techniques to create life-size statues. (I.E) ★★★ 4. Other possible factors would also lead to the differences between miniature statues and
life-size statures. (F.A) ★★★★ 5. Alternative explanation could also explain why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have
been found. (NCR) ★★★ 6. The author’s assumption that the life-size sculptures will decrease in value and the
miniatures to increase in value is unwarranted. (U.A) ★★★★
1.life-size clay statues，Kalinese artists 论断：K的艺术家是用实际人体做模型来雕刻的。因为考古学家最近在K发现了一些人头和手的模型。这个发现解释了为什么K的小雕塑是抽象的完全另一种风格，因为模型只能用来做真人大小的雕刻。它同时也解释了为什么很少有古K的工具被发现。论者还认为这将使得真人大小的雕像价值下降，小型雕像价值上升。 ·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是这些人头和手的模型是用来做雕刻的。但是论者看来只是在猜测，因为他没有提供任何有关与这些被发现在模型有关的雕像。没有资料显示有雕像是根据这些模型做出来的。 ·论断的论据没有说服力。论者认为K的小雕像与大雕像风格迥异，而且都很抽象，正是因为他们无法用人体做模型。但是论者没有提供资料证明小雕像与大雕像的用途创作者是否一样，因为这些都会使得两者之间存在风格差异，而不一定是因为模型的问题。 ·论断的另一个论据是说很少有K的雕刻工具被发现出来，但这并不能说明K的工具很少，人体是K的工具。因为工具有可能是因各种原因被毁坏了，
或者仅仅是考古学家还没有找到而已。 ·论断很武断。就算这些模型是用来雕刻的，但并不能得出K的所有人体大小的雕像都是用这种方法制作出来的。毕竟被发现的也只是一些头部和手部的模型，这至少不能排除其它部位不用这种方式制作。 ·论断也没有根据。论者认为这个发现将使得大雕像价值下降，小雕像价值上升。但论者并没有提供任何资料证明用模型做的雕像就不值得研究，或是收藏家们对于人体模型很反感，或是他们对小雕像的兴趣有所增长。结论：论者若要加强说服力，还需要提供资料解释是否有雕像是用这些模型做出来的，并还需要提供有收藏家对这一发现的看法。
20. 76, （保健/论断/——）The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty
magazine.
\"A group of volunteers(1) participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap(2) and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt(3). Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin(4).\" ★★★
1. The volunteers may not be representative of all consumers using Luxess. (are the
respondents representative?) ★★★ 2. The author fails to rule out the possibility that it is the mild soap that actually improved the
condition of the volunteers’ facial skin. (NCR/lack of controlled experiment) ★★★★ 3. The volunteers may have misunderstanding about the condition of their facial skin.
(credibility of the evidence) ★★★★ 4. The author fails to consider possible negative effects of Luxess. (adv:disadv) ★★★
health and beauty, 论断：L对提高脸部皮肤状况真的有效。因为对一组自愿者为期一个月的试验中发现，大多数志愿者报告说他们的皮肤看起来和感觉上有很显著的提高。论断的所有推理及论据均来自这次试验，而对于试验的描述存在很多问题。 ·没有关于样本人群的特征描述，不能证明参加试验的人群具有普遍代表性。论者没有提供有关志愿者人数，及试验前的皮肤状况，这样不能保证结果科学。如果说志愿者人数少，且皮肤状况有同一问题，结果只能证明L对某种状态的皮肤有效，而对其他人无效。 ·没有关于试验过程的具体描述。论断提供的有关描述中不能让人排除是其他因素使志愿者皮肤改变，比如是中性肥皂，比如试验时或试验的地点气候宜人，比如试验者可能还在使用其他护肤品。没有这样的资料，也不能说明L有效。 ·没有对试验结果科学的描述。单凭志愿者自我报告感觉和看起来是非常不科学的。因为存在心理因素的影响，认为换了一种护肤品皮肤一定会有变化，或是对于不好的情况不愿意报告。所以论者应提供对志愿者皮肤改变结果科学的分析。不然无法证明志愿者的皮肤因为L有了改善。结论：论者的描述非常不科学，缺乏说服力。要增加说服力，还需要进一步提供有关这次试验的资料，比如志愿者的人数、年龄、皮肤状态，试验的过程有无其他因素干扰，并对结果进行科学量化的分析。
21. 237, （城市，经济/建议/——）The following appeared as part of an article in a local Beauville
newspaper.
\"According to a government report, last year(5) the city of Dillton reduced its corporate tax rate by 15 percent; at the same time, it began offering relocation grants and favorable rates on city utilities to any company that would relocate to Dillton. Within 18 months, two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton, where they employ a total of 300 people(1,2,3). Therefore, the fastest way(6) for Beauville to stimulate economic development and hence reduce unemployment is to provide tax incentives and other financial inducements that encourage private companies(7) to relocate here(4).\" ★★2,25
1. The author unfairly assumes that Dillton’s current prosperity, if any, results from the
policies implemented last year. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★★ 2. The fact that two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton and employ 300 people is
insignificant evidence to show that Dillton are experiencing prosperity. (I.E) ★★★★ 3. Without more information about Dillton's economic conditions and employment level
both before and after the incentives were established it is impossible to assess whether
those incentives had a positive or negative impact—or any impact at all—on Dillton's overall economy. (adv:disadv/I.I/lack of comparison) ★★★
4. Granted that the policies are responsible for the prosperity of Dillton, we cannot ensure
that Beauville could experience the same prosperity through providing similar incentives. (F.A) ★★★★★
5. The author fails to substantiate the assumption that during the last 18 months all
conditions upon which the effectiveness of the policies depends have remained unchanged. (P→C) ★★★ 6. The arguer ignores other possible methods that may improve Beauville’s economy more
efficiently. (necessity of the solution) ★★★ 7. Granted such incentives are indeed necessary, the author fails to illustrate why we should
target on private companies. (I.E) ★★
.reduced its corporate tax rate 论断：B刺激经济发展降低失业率的最快方法是提供税收刺激和其它财政刺激鼓励私人企业再创业。因为D城去年把企业税降了15%，同时他们开始向所有到D来创业的企业提供资金和优惠的城市设备使用价格。18个月里，两家制造企业搬去了D，它们一共雇了300个人。 论断都从D城例子得来。 ·两城情况不一样，地理位不同、发展水平不同、居民不同等等等。D城以前的税率不明，有可能降完了还比B高。 ·两家公司不一定是因为低税来D的，有可能这里的潜在市场被它们看重，有可能其它自己的原因。 ·D城的经济发展和失业问题解决得怎么样不知道，300个人的就业少了点吧。而且搞不好这三百人以前都是有工作的。 ·结论：首先D城例子里没说两家公司是私人企业，私人企业就算有刺激不一定能有能力再创业。其次，最快的方法，你就说了这一个呢。
22. 147, （文化娱乐，商业/预言/并列）The following appeared in an editorial in a business
magazine.
\"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined(1) over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game(2). According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers(4).
Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old(5), the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase(6) dramatically in the next few months(3).\" ★★★212
1. The author fails to take into account other factors that might also lead to the decline in
their sales of video games. (NCR) ★★★ 2. Many other questions that are directly related to the conclusion are ignored by the author.
(what question was asked in the survey) ★★★★
3. The author fails to consider other features that may also influence the overall quality of a
game. (I.T) ★★★ 4. The author fails to analyze how many players have access to such most up-to-date
computers. (I.I) ★★★ 5. No evidence could indicate that players 10-25 years old will also prefer such kind of
games. (C.S) ★★★ 6. Sales of video games would be determined by many factors, thus the mere fact cited by
the author could not ensure increase in our sales. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
147.Whirlwind video games 论断：WW今后几个月的销售可能会急聚上升。因为一份对电视游戏玩家的调查显示，它的销售趋势会转变。这份调查问玩家们认为游戏的什么特点最重要，他们偏向有生动动画的游戏，这种游戏需要最新的电脑技术。WW刚刚用大规模广告向10到25岁的人群推出了几种这样的游戏，这个年纪的人群最可能玩电游。 ·前提：关于10到25岁最可能玩电游，没有数字，没有根据，是瞎猜的。 ·WV会卖得好，虽然玩家们认为这是最重要的特点，但并不表示生动了他们就一定买。因为游戏还有其他特点，比如类型、是否刺激、主题等。如果光有技术，思想不足，也不一定卖得好。而且他没有说用的什么技术，我们无法认同是否存在判断失误。 ·论据：广告针对10-25岁人群，但调查不是，这两者可能存在偏差。 ·结论：尽管WV吸引人，可能经济萧条，或整个市场不好。
23. 162, （保健/建议/并列）A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North
America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times(2) more chronic depression(1) than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy per day(3), whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones(4), which have been found to possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression(5,6).★★★187
1. The definition of fatigue and depression may be different in North America and in Asia.
(I.C) ★★★ 2. The rate of incidence of fatigue and depression may not reflect the actual health status of
each group of people, many other factors could explain the differences between the rates. (I.C) ★★★★
3. The author unfairly attributes the lower incidence of these problems in Asians to eating
soy regularly. (NCR) ★★★★★ 4. Even if eating soy is effective on preventing these problems, we cannot hastily assume
that it is the isofalvones contained in soy that result in the effectiveness. (NCR) ★ 5. Granted that eating soy do benefit Asians on their health, no evidence could ensure the
same good effect will also occur among North Americans through eating soy.(F.A) ★★★ 6. Eating soy may not be the only means of obtaining the substance, the author ignores
many other solution to solve the problem. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
North America fatigue,depression,Asia,soy 论断：北美洲的人应该考虑经常吃点黄豆以防止疲劳和消沉。因为黄豆黄有一种叫I的化学成分，有防止得病的特征。最近一份研究发现北美洲的人比亚洲人多9次慢性疲劳和31次慢性消沉。而亚洲人每天会吃20克黄豆，北美人却一点都不吃。 ·那种化学成份不一定能防止疲劳和消沉。 ·论据有问题，调查没有提供数据，无从判断调查是否能代表两地的情况准确。但从结论来看忽略了一些因素，比如北美人和亚洲人体质有差别，北美人工作压力比亚洲人大等等。 ·对亚洲人有效，不一定对北美人有效。
24. 164, （学校建设/建议/并列）Claitown University needs both affordable housing for its
students and a way to fund the building of such housing. The best solution(1) to this problem is to commission a famous architect(2) known for experimental and futuristic(3) buildings. It is common knowledge that tourists are willing to pay money to tour some of the architect's buildings, so it can be expected that tourists will want to visit(4) this new building(5). The income from the fees charged to tourists will soon cover the building costs. Furthermore, such a building will attract new students as well as donations from alumni(6). And even though such a building will be much larger than our current need for student housing, part of the building can be used as office space(7,8). ★★★163
1. The author ignores other solutions to solve the problem. (necessity of the solution) ★★
★
2. The cost of commissioning a famous architect would be expensive, thus the income of
Claitown University will increase would not necessarily increase. (adv:disadv) ★★★ 3. Granted that a new dorm is inevitably necessary, if the building should be experimental
and futuristic style is open to doubt. The author fails to consider if the unique building could harmoniously coexist with our existing buildings. (U.A/feasibility of the conclusion/adv:disadv) ★★★ 4. The author’s assumption that a significant number of tourist will be willing to pay to visit
a students’ dormitory is unwarranted. (U.A) ★★★★ 5. The author’s fails to consider the negative effect of attracting tourists to visit the
dormitory, and if students will accept such activity. (feasibility of the conclution/adv:disadv) ★★★★ 6. The number of enrollments and donations from alumni would be influenced by many
factors, thus merely constructing a new dorm might not sufficiently achieve the author’s purpose. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
7. The author fails to consider the feasibility and negative effect of converting part of the
building into office space. (feasibility of the conclution/adv:disadv) ★★★★ 8. The author fails to demonstrate that Claitown University currently needs more office
space. (necessity of the solution) ★★
Claitown University needs housing and way to fund the building 论断：最好的办法是雇用一个有经验有眼力的著名建筑师。因为一般旅游者都愿意花钱看一些建筑师的作品，所以会有旅游者来看新楼。这样这项收入可以很快抵消建楼的费用。另外这个楼会吸引新的学生以及校友的捐款。尽管这个楼会比现在学生住宿需求大，但一部分可以用来办公。 ·学生宿舍是否能作旅游点。尽管会有旅游者去看一些大师的建筑物，但是否有人愿意花钱去看学生起居的地方，而且学生会不同意的，因为宿舍是他们的私人空间。这项收入不一定够。学校被视为非赢利机构，任务是培养学生，不能把建楼往商业用途上引 ·没有证据表明会有校友愿意为此捐款，仅仅是猜测而已。 ·学生宿舍不太可能适合办公，而且现在的办公空间够了，外面也不见得有人要租。
25. 37, （考古/论断/大并列小递进）Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive
pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a \"Palean\" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad(3), and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat(1), but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river(5)—the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game(4). It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea(2). ★★★★★33
1. The author fails to consider the possibility that the Paleans may arrived in Lithos through
other means. (I.T) ★★★★
2. The Palean basket could arrive other place through many possible methods such as trade,
or boats possessed by other culture. (I.T) ★★★★
3. In Palean times, the Brim River may not be as deep and broad as it is currently. (C→P)
★★★ 4. The fact that there are abundant resources currently does not indicate that those resources
also existed in Palean times. (C→P) ★★★ 5. Other reasons other than food shortages may well result in the migration of a culture. (I.E)
★★★
Woven baskets,prehistoric village of Palea 论断：这种篮子不只P有。因为与他们住的地方隔一条河的地方也被发现有这个篮子，河很深只能划船过，但又没有证据证明P有船，而且能装很多人的船是在他们消失后几千年才出现的。另外P也没有必要过河，因为他们那边的山上长满了坚果草莓。 ·前提不一定成立。论者是由P没有到过这里，得出篮子不只P有。但是论者没有提供任何确切的资料证明这里没有P来过的痕变，或是P的确没有来过这里。虽然P无法过河，但论者也没有告诉我们是否只有过河，P才能到这里 ·论者的论据没有说服力。论者指出河很深，而P没有船，大船的出现也在P之后。但是首先论者没有提供关于史前时代这条河的状况，有可能这条大河在史前时代并不存在，或是很浅。第二虽然没有证据表明P有船，而那个时代也没有大船，但P有可能使用一些简便的类似船的工具过河，比如木板。这些都可以使P达到这里。至于论者说P那边满是食物所以没有必要到这里就更没有说服力了，首先史前时代P那边是否也满是食物论者没有说，其次P不一定必须是为食物才到其他地方去，他可能是为玩耍或是其他什么偶然的因素。 ·论者的结论很武断。论者认为P没有到过这里，所以这些篮子不是P的，篮子也就不只P有。但是就算P没有到过这里，论者也没有提供证据证明其他人不会把P的篮子带到这里来，比如说这里人，比如后人。结论：论断要加强说服力还应进一步了解史前时代P人生活的状况，并对这里的地理状况提供更详细的资料。
26. 9, （教育/提议/递进）The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega
University.
\"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors(1). Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent.(2) Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University(3,7). To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors.(4,5,6)\" ★★★211, 238
1. The dean provides no evidence about the number or percentage of Omega students who
participate in the procedure. (V.D) ★★
2. The argument also assumes unfairly that the grade-average increase is the result of the
evaluation procedure—rather than some other phenomenon. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★ 3. The dean's claim that grade inflation explains why Omega graduates are less successful than
Alpha graduates in getting jobs is unjustified. (NCR) ★★★★ 4. The dean ignores other possible ways by which Omega can increase its job-placement record.
(necessity of the solution) ★★★ 5. Merely terminating the evaluation system might not suffice to enable Omega’s graduates
to secure better jobs. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★★ 6. The dean fails to mention the positive effects of the evaluation system. (adv:disadv) ★★★★
★
7. The graduates from the two universities may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★
Omega University, evaluation 论断：终止学生评论教授，毕业生就能保证找到好工作。因为评价使得学生的分数平均增长 了30%， 使得潜在雇主认为学生的成绩是被夸张的，从而使学生没有另一学校学生找工作成功。 ·论断的前提是评论工程使得学生的分数虚夸，这是非常不公平的。论断没有提供有力证据证明学生的实际水平没有比以前有所提高，或是教师的确在给一些能力不高的学生打高分。因为评论工程的实施本身就是希望教师重视学生的意见，从而提高教学水平，最终提高学生的能力，而分数的提高是一个很重要的参数。而论断武断地将整体提升的分数归结为教师不真诚的行为，对学生和教师都非常不公平。 ·论断没有足够的证据。论断说潜在雇主认为分数虚夸，却没有提供任何这方面的证据，仅仅用显然一词表示，不得不让人认为论者有偏见。而说到没有附近另一所学校被录用率高，论者也没有证据表明这是因分数虚夸而导致，他既没有提供该校学生的分数是否比本校低，也没有证明他们其他的能力是否就不如本校，甚至他没有说该校是不是没有采用评价工程。 ·论断认为这么做学生就能保证找到好工作也非常片面。很多因素都会因响学生是否找到工作，其中很重要的一条是专业是否有市场，另外经济是在萧条期还是繁荣期也会影响到学生找工作。这些都不是学校某项措施就能保证的。结论：论断太过武断，他还应该再提供一些有关潜在雇主对该校学生具体评价，看看是否是因为不信任学生的分数而影响了他们录用学生，他们对学生表现出来的其他能力评价又如何。其实学生在找工作方面遇到了困难，学校应该对其进行面试辅导以增强他们的竞争力，或是根据市场需求调整课程，而不应该简单地停止一项旨在提高教学质量的措施。
27. 15, （经济，投资/建议/大并列小递进）The following appeared in a newsletter offering
advice to investors.
\"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol(1,5), and today low-fat products abound in many food stores(2). Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol(7), the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease(3,4). We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company(6).\" ★★★★66
1. The author fails to assure us that the survey results accurately reflect the desires of most
consumers, or that the results accurately predict consumer behavior. (Are the respondents representative?) ★★
2. The fact that low-fat foods are in abundant supply in food stores does not necessarily indicate
an increasing demand for low-fat dairy products or a diminishing demand for high-fat dairy products. (NCR) ★★★★★
3. The newsletter concludes too hastily that Old Dairy profits will decline. (U.A) ★★★ 4. The argument fails to provide any information about other products marketed by Old
Dairy which may be low in fat and cholesterol. (I.I) ★★★ 5. The author fails to consider other factors that may influence the consumers’ decision in
choosing food. (I.T) ★★★ 6. The mere fact that many Old Dairy’s food products are high in fat and cholesterol does
not necessarily prove that their stock is not worth investing. (I.T) ★★★★
7. The author ignores the possibility that Old Dairy may change its policy and main product
in the future. (P→F) ★★★
Over 80 percent their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol 论断：Old Dairy Industries的销量可能会大幅减少，利润也无疑会降低，所以建议他该卖股份了，其他人也别入股进来。因为他大部分的产品都是高脂肪高卡路里的，而如今低脂肪产品很多，人们也有降低脂肪和卡路里摄入的愿望，为此他还引用了一个调查，表明有80%的人是这样的。 ·论断的前提是不成立的。论者认为Old Dairy Industries不会有健康的产品，所以没有投资的价值。但这显然太过武断。论者没有提供证据表明Old Dairy Industries没有在开发此类产品，今后也坚决不卖健康产品。如果说Old Dairy Industries已经在开发健康产品的话，以它目前的市场份额，它的新产品还是有希望有很好的市场表现的。 ·论断认为Old Dairy Industries的现有产品市场会缩小。他举例说一份调查的80%被访者有愿望降低脂肪卡路里摄入量，但他没有证据表明脂肪卡路里的含量是否是人们选择食品时的唯一或是最重要标准，因为其他像口味、价格以及品牌问题肯定还是会左右人们的选择。另外有关这份调查的有效性，代表性论者也没有给出资料，如果说这份调查的被调查者都是老人或是肥胖者，那么它显然不具备普遍说服力。没有这些资料，Old Dairy Industries的现有产品并不能被肯定会失去它以往的市场份额。 ·论断的另一个论据是商店里低脂肪的产品很多，但这显然与Old Dairy Industries的市场表现毫无关系。因为论者既没有例举出这些产品是哪种类型，蛋糕还是冰淇凌，与Old Dairy Industries的是不是相同，有没有对Old Dairy Industries的市场造成冲激，也没有说明人们是否更愿意买这些商品。这些产品的存在不足以证明Old Dairy Industries将失去它的市场。 ·论断得出的也很没有道理。就算Old Dairy Industries对市场需求反应迟钝，正在一步步失去它的市场份额，也不能就此认为它一点都不具备投资价值。毕竟目前市场上大多数的食品市场由它占有，这种品牌号召力首先就非常吸引人。另外其他的因素比如销售渠道，管理能力，营销方式等等也都是考量这个企业是否有投资价值的标准。毕竟今天不是最后的宣判，Old Dairy Industries或其他有兴趣的投资人可以从今天开始改造Old Dairy Industries，比如说抓紧推出健康食品。结论：论者没有深入了解Old Dairy Industries和目前的食品市场就仓促得出结论，这样非常不公平。如果要证明Old Dairy Industries的确不值得投资，论者还需要进一步证明该公司已无法开发出新产品，现在市场也已受到健康食品的严重冲击，另外还有就是Old Dairy Industries以前的所有优势也不复存在。
28. 194, （社会，就业/建议/对比）A recent study suggests that people who are left-handed are more likely
to succeed in business than are right-handed people. Researchers studied photographs of 1,000 prominent business executives(3) and found that 21 percent of these executives(1) wrote with their left hand(2). So the percentage of prominent business executives who are left-handed (21 percent) is almost twice the percentage of people in the general population who are left-handed (11 percent). Thus, people who are left-handed(5) would be well advised to pursue a career in business(4), whereas people who are right-handed would be well advised to imitate the business practices(6,7,8) exhibited by left-handers(9). ★★★★★
1. The author fails to indicate what fraction of all business persons are left-handed. (V.D) ★
★★
2. People who write with their left hand are not necessarily left-handed. (U.C) ★★★
3. The 1,000 executives from the study are not necessarily representative of the overall
population of prominent business executives. (are the respondents representative?) ★★ 4. The photographs in themselves prove little about the causal relationship between
left-handedness and the ability to succeed in business, many prominent executives might have risen to their status not by way of their achievements or business acumen but through other means. (NCR) ★★★★
5. The facts cited by the author do not indicate that all people who are left-handed are
suitable for pursuing careers in business. (C.S) ★★★ 6. The author unfairly assumes that people who are right-handed also have strong will to
succeed in business. (U.A) ★★★ 7. Merely imitating the business practices exhibited by left-handers may not suffice to
guarantee business success. (NCR/sufficiency of the solution) ★★★★ 8. Some business activities exhibited by left-handers could not be easily imitated. (feasibility
of the conclusion) ★★★ 9. The author assumes without substantiation that the way in which left-handed people
conduct business is the only way to succeed in business. (necessity of the solution) ★★★
left-handed more likely to succeed than are right-handed people 论断：左捌子应该去从商，右捌子模仿左捌子的商业经历。因为最近的研究显示左捌子比右捌子更可能从商成功。研究者通过照片对1000名商业巨头作分析，发现21%的人用左手写字。这个比例几乎是普通人中间左捌子的两倍。 ·左捌子从商成功率高。虽然商业成功人士中的左捌子比例比一般人高，但是从商的人中间有多少是左捌子？如果从商的人中有一半是左捌子，那么右捌子显然比左捌子成功率更高。 ·右捌子要学左捌子。没有资料说左捌子比右捌子更成功，为什么要他们学。 ·论据有问题，且不论医学依据是什么，照片有可能摆拍呀。另外混淆左捌子与用左手写字的人，有些人两只手都能写字，有些人用左手写字，但别的事都主要是右手。
29. 200, （医疗，经营/建议/对比）Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times
more(1,3) men than women faint while visiting the dentist(2). This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer(4) and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients(5,6,7). ★★★188
1. Without the base amount of male and female patients respectively, we cannot assess
which group is more likely to be distressed. (V.D) ★★★★ 2. The author fails to describe the detailed circumstances when those patients faint, thus we
could not evaluate the argument. (I.I/I.C) ★★★ 3. The times of people faint are not a good indication of whether people are distressed. (U.C)
★★★ 4. The author ignores the negative effects of advertisement which focusing on the male
consumers. (adv:disadv/necessity of the solution) ★★★ 5. The author fails to consider what fraction of all patients are likely to be nervous or
suffering, and how many consumers really care about their anesthetic techniques and sensitivity. (V.D/necessity of the solution) ★★★★
6. The author ignores many important features of a dentist which could also attract patients.
(necessity of the solution) ★★★ 7. The proposed advertising techniques might have the opposite effect—by calling attention
to the very sorts of images that cause distress and fainting. (negative evidence) ★★★★
three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist 论断：打广告吸引病人的牙医应该把目标放在男顾客身上，并强调他们麻醉技术的效果以及员工对病人紧张或痛苦的敏感。因为从牙医那儿收集的数据表明，看牙医晕的男人比女人多三倍，这显示男人比女人接受牙治疗时更紧张。 ·前提，男人比女人晕得多。男女病人的各自总数没有提，有可能男人牙病的多。而且也没有提病症，有可能男人的牙问题比女人的严重。 ·男人比女人看牙医容易紧张。女人可能也紧张，但不是晕，还有其它的表现，比如说心里，还有的干脆不去。 ·结论，打广告：没人说医生敏感就不紧张，得技术好。不关女病人，万一不看牙医的女人多呢。
30. 10, （政治经济/对策/先并列后递进）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a
Batavia newspaper.
\"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms (2)throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market(1,3) has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon(4,5,6). To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk
prices(8). Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers(7).\" ★★
1. The author unfairly assumes that Excello's milk prices reflect those throughout Batavia. (C.S/quantity of the sample) ★★★★
2. The number of dairy farms does not necessarily indicate the supply of milk. (U.C) ★★★★ 3. Even the production of milk in the country increased in general, no information is offered to
show whether the production in Excello also increased. (C.S) ★★★ 4. We are not informed about how much did the price of milk actually increase after adjustment for
inflation. (I.T) ★★★
5. The author fails to consider the variation in the demand of milk. (I.T/I.I) ★★★ 6. The author does not provide a cost benefit analysis. (I.I) ★★★
7. The author fails to consider other possible methods that may guarantee lower prices and an
adequate supply. (necessity of the solution) ★★★ 8. The proposed regulation may lead to undesirable consequences. (I.T/unexpected
consequences) ★★★★★
department of agriculture in Batavia 论断：为保证消费者得到低价和足够的牛奶供应，规范价格非常必要。因为奶农数量在过去10年增加了25%，而同时市场里的牛奶价格却升了一倍，这表明奶农从中获得了多余的利润。 ·论断的前提是牛奶农们获得了多余的利润，但是却没有提供相应的证据。论者没有对牛奶生产所需的成本作任何调查，也没有提供农民获得的赢利具体是多少，更没有提供这样的赢利与其他产品的市场相比是否超出了应该的范围。这样武断地认为农民拿到了多余的利润非常不公平。 ·论断引用的证据是牛奶价格在牛奶农场数量上升的同时，翻了一倍。但论据中有很多疑点，首先农场数量的增长不一定必然带来牛奶产量的上升。我们知道根据一般规律，产品数量上升会带来相应价格的下降，但是论据却没有提供任何有关牛奶产量的资料，这并不能排除农场数量增多的同时，单个农场的产量却在下降，从而导致市场上牛奶供应持平甚致有可能下降。另外价格的变化与供应量的变化之间也不是必然的，牛奶价格上涨有可能是整个经济环境的问题，比如说通货膨胀，论据没有提供任何有关整个市场或是其他商品价格变化的资料。 ·论者认为市场的牛奶价格过高需要规范，以保证消费者获得低价足够的牛奶供应。但是他却忽视了一个重要问题就是牛奶的价格上涨正反应了牛奶需求量的上升。如果调低价格，牛奶市场就会失去一部现有的牛奶资源，从而导致供应不足。结论：该论断仅凭市场的表象就作出结论，缺乏对牛奶市场的深入调查。要进一步了解牛奶市场的价格是否合理是否需要规范，他还需要了解目前的牛奶供应量是多少，是否满足消费者需求，以及整个市场的价格水平。
31. 165, （健康卫生/论断/——）The following appeared in a business magazine.
\"As a result of numerous consumer complaints of dizziness and nausea, Promofoods requested that eight million cans of tuna(1) be returned for testing last year. Promofoods concluded that the cans did not, after all, contain chemicals that posed a health risk(5). This conclusion is based on the fact that the chemists from Promofoods tested samples of the recalled cans(2) and found that, of the eight chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea(4), five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find that the three remaining suspected chemicals(3) are naturally found in all other kinds of canned foods.\" ★★★
1. We do not know how many tuna cans did Promofoods sell in total last year, thus could not
evaluate if the eight million return cans are among the batch which caused the problems.(I.I/V.D) ★★★
2. We do not know if tuna cans are the only kind of food Promofoods sell last year, hence
we could not evaluate if the test makes any sense. (does the test make any difference?) ★
★★
3. The author fails to rule out the possibility that it is the three remaining chemicals that
resulted in the problem. (I.E) ★★★ 4. The author generalizes too hastily that the tested cans do not contain any chemicals that
pose a health risk at all. (C.S) ★★★ 5. The chemists failed to examine the samples for other chemicals or substances that could
cause dizziness and nausea. (does the study make any difference?) ★★★★
dizziness and nausea，tuna can 论断：金枪鱼罐头不含造成健康危险的化学成分。P的结论基础是化学家对收回的罐头样品的测试发现八种最常造成两种病症的化学成份中有五种这些罐头里根本没有，而被发现的另外三种仍有怀疑的化学成份在所有罐头食物里都有。 ·八种常见的以外还有其他不常见但同样会造成头晕恶心的。 ·三种哪儿都有的可能含量超标。另外食物不同作用也会不同。 ·样品选取是否科学，另五种还是有可能存在于其它的里面，或是已售出的罐头的。
32. 233, （工程建设/决策/对比+并列）The following appeared in a memo from the vice
president of a company that builds shopping malls throughout the country.
\"The surface of a section of Route 101(1), paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 66(1), paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition(2). Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new
quality-control manager(3,4,5). Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders(9) to construct the access roads(6,8) for all(7) our new shopping malls.\" ★17,41,93
1. Only one of all roads built by each company is compared, and only one section of each
road is compared, thus we cannot evaluate the overall quality of construction of the two companies. (I.C) ★★★★
2. Many other factors that would influence the condition of a road are ignored by the
president. (I.C) ★★★★★ 3. The arguer does not provide any information about the machinery used and the status of
quality-control personnel at McAdam. (ex parte information) ★★★ 4. No information about the performance of the new quality-control manager at Appian is
provided. (I.I) ★★★ 5. Many factors besides equipment and on-site management would also affect the quality of
a pavement job. (I.C) ★★★★
6. Granted that the quality of routes paved by Appian is superior, we cannot guarantee
Appian could also do an excellent job in constructing the access roads for shopping malls. (U.C) ★★★
7. The president hastily assumes that Appian is capable of constructing the access roads of
all new shopping malls. (C.S) ★★★ 8. The president fails to consider if Appian are willing to contract with the company to
construct access roads. (feasibility of the conclusion) ★★ 9. Other competent companies might be available for the president to choose from. (F.D) ★
★★
Route 101 badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. 论断：我们应该和A签合同建所有新商场的通道。因为它们的工作更好质量有承诺。M在两年前铺的101道现在已经严重损坏，而A四年前铺的66道现在还挺好。A现在买了新的机器，而且还雇了新的经理。 ·前提，A修的路比M好。论据问题，可能101道在市中心，或是常有重型货车通过，再不然还有地面的地质问题，都是造成损毁严重的原因。66可能就容易多了。 ·前提，A比M好。没有直接的证据证明A现在比M好，相反，新机器和新经理，都说明M和以前修66时不一样了，磨和问题，适应问题，都不是以前的经验能保证的。 ·结论：商场的活可能跟66完全不一样，另外就通过一次工程就得出永久结论，不公平。
33. 158, （卫生健康，社会/论断/——）The Trash-Site Safety Council has recently conducted a
statewide study(5) of possible harmful effects of garbage sites on the health of people living near the sites. A total of five sites and 300 people(1) were examined. The study revealed, on average, only a small statistical correlation between the proximity of homes to garbage sites and the incidence of unexplained rashes(2) among people living in these homes. Furthermore, although it is true that people living near the largest trash sites had a slightly higher incidence of the rashes, there was otherwise no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people's health(4). Therefore, the council is pleased to announce that the current system of garbage sites does not pose a significant health hazard(3). We see no need to restrict the size of such sites in our state or to place any restrictions(6) on the number of homes built near the sites. ★★★
1. For lack of data concerning the total amount of garbage sites and people living near them
in the state, the reliability of the study is open to doubt. (quantity of the sample) ★★★ 2. The argument treats a lack of proof that current system of garbage sites will pose some
extent of health hazard as constituting sufficient proof that it will not pose any significant health hazard. (do the statistics make any difference?) ★★★★★
3. The Council unfairly assumes that the current health status of people living near garbage
sites result from the safety of current system of garbage sites, not other explanations. (NCR) ★★★ 4. The fact that people living near the largest trash sites had a higher incidence of the rashes
contradicts the Council’s assertion that there was no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people’s health. (negative evidence) ★★★
5. The result of the statewide study could not sufficiently rule out the possibility that
garbage sites do pose significant health hazard in some specific regions. (C.S) ★★ 6. Certain restriction on the size of garbage sites and number of homes built near the sites
would still be necessary in the future although the current system pose no significant health hazard. (C→F) ★★★★
harmful effects on the health of people living near garbage sites 论断：没有必要对垃圾场的面积作限制，也没有必要对垃圾场旁的房屋建筑数目做限制。因为目前的垃圾系统没有造成大的健康危害。最近对州上五个垃圾场和300个住在附近的人的研究显示，住户住在垃圾场边和解释不清的疹一般只有很小的数据关系。而且虽然住在最大的垃圾场旁的人会有较高的轻度疹发生次数，但垃圾场大小和人们的健康也没有关系。 所有基础就是这个调查，但调查有漏洞。 ·有无皮疹不能说明是否对健康有害，论者也没有提供为什么用皮疹作唯一参照标准。 ·既然最大的垃圾场旁边有较高的发生次数，就说明有可能它对健康的影响比其他的更大。The argue treats the evidence for the occurrence of a condition under which a circumstance will occur as the conclusive evidence that a circumstance will not occur. ·目前没有危害，如果不限制危害有可能发生。
34. 25, （城市/决策/类比）The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of
Hopewell.
\"Two years ago(1,5), the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent(6). The best way(4) to improve
Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View(2,3).\" ★2,237
1. The arguer fails to point out how the golf course and resort hotel actually contributed to
the economy of Ocean View. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★ 2. Ocean View and Hopewell may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★★★★
3. The argument relies on an unwarranted assumption that Hopewell lacks golf course and
resort hotel, or that the existing ones are not attractive enough. (U.A) ★ 4. The arguer ignores other possible methods that may improve Hopewell’s economy more
efficiently. (necessity of the solution) ★★★ 5. The mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue to benefit
Hopewell's overall economy. (P→F) ★★★★ 6. The 30 percent increase in tax revenues of Ocean View does not indicate that its
economic condition is better than Hopewell’s, because we do not know the base amount of tax revenues to begin with. (V.D) ★★
Ocean View ,Hopewell. 论断：建一个高尔夫场和假日饭店，是提升Hopewell经济和税收的最好方法。因为隔壁两年前这么做了，他们取了效果。 ·论断的前题是本市没有高尔夫场和假日饭店，或是有但不够吸引人。但这一前提在论断中没有被保障成立。因为论断没有提供任何有关本市目前旅游设施的资料，这样我们就无法评估建一个高尔夫场等是必要还是浪
费。前提不成立，论断也就不成立。 ·论断引用隔壁的成功经验做论据，却不具备说服力。首先我们不知道隔壁的旅游收是否就比我们多，如果说他们提高30%以后还没我们多的话，他们是否具备学习价值就可怀疑。另外隔壁和我们的情况是否相同，论断也没提供。如果说他们是在农村而我们在城市，或是他们在海边，我们在高原，这样都使得他们的成功不必然出现在我们这里。 ·论断说这是最好的方法也显然太过武断。论断没有提供资料以证明这种方法比其他的好，甚至没有告诉我们它能给我们带来多少增长，比我们以前的方法或是其他途径快在哪里。结论：论者没有对本市的旅游设施进行了解，但凭其他地区的成功经验就要硬搬，非常荒谬。要增强说服力，论者还需要进一步了解本市旅游资源的优势与劣势。
35. 97, （传媒/决策/并列+类比）The following appeared in a memo from the manager of
television station KICK.
\"A nationwide survey(2) reveals that a sizeable majority of men(1) would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK(3) increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled(4). To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits(5), KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage(6,7).\" ★★235
1. Only male audience were surveyed in the nationwide survey. (selective sample) ★★★★ 2. The result of the national survey may not apply to the area at where KICK locates. (C.S) ★
★★★ 3. The situation of KICK and WACK might be quite different. (F.A) ★★★★
4. Other factors may also lead to the increased audience share of WACK. (NCR) ★★★ 5. The manager unfairly assumes that the proposed change would necessarily lead to larger
audience share and more company profits. (NCR/sufficiency of the solution) ★★★ 6. The manager does not analyze current performance, advantages and profitability of KICK
to illustrate the necessity of carrying out such revision. (I.I/necessity of the solution) ★★★★ 7. Other methods could also be used to gain larger audience share and increase company
profits. (I.T) ★★
television station KICK 论断：为了扩大我们在本地区的观众面，进而提高公司利润，K也应该修改它的广播安排包括增加更多的体育报道。因为一份全国性的调查显示，相当多数的男人会愿意看更多的电视体育节目。在W提高体育节目后，它们地区的电视观众几乎翻了一倍。 ·前提是增加体育报道会扩大观众面，但是论者的论据并不能保证这一点。首先全国的情况与本地区的情况不一定完全相同，所以那份调查也就不一定能说明本地区也会有同样的情况存在。其次调查显示男人爱看，那么女人、孩子、老人对体育节目的态度如何，不考虑这些，这样的调整就有可能失去部分现有观众。 ·W台，首先W在另一个地区，该地区人们的生活习惯、性别比例都与我们不同，所以他们的经验不一定适合我们。另外W的收视率增加不一定是因为体育节目，W有可能还进行了其他的改变，而且没有资料显示增加的观众主要是男人。第三很有可能W台以前的体育节目非常少，就是现在也没有我们多，那么就不能证明我们现在仍需要增加。 ·结论武断，增加体育报道需要多投入，而且我们不一
定在此有优势。另外即使增加体育报道会扩大我们的收视范围，但如果没有广告对此感兴趣，也不能提高公司利润。结论：论者没有对本地区的观众以及本台的节目进行了解，单凭一份普通意义上的调查和别人的经验就得出结论。他应该进一步了解本台的观众收视偏爱，并了解体育节目的广告情况。
36. 195, （出版，经营/对策/——）The following is a letter from an editor at Liber Publishing
Company to the company's president.
\"In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to publish the works(1) of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city authors(2). Just last year, 90 percent of the novels(1) we published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city(2). Although this change must have been intended to increase profits(3), it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now in serious financial trouble(4). The only way(5) to address this problem is to return to our original
mission(7). If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved(6).\" ★★★
1. The fact that 90 percent of the novels we published were written by big city authors does
not necessarily indicate that Liber has moved away from the original mission. (C.S) ★★★★ 2. Authors who maintain a residence in a big city are not necessarily equal to big city
authors. (C.S/definition of the term ‘big city authors’) ★ 3. The author unfairly assumes that the change must have been intended to increase profits.
(U.A) ★★ 4. The author fails to establish a causal relationship between publishing many novels written
by big city authors and the financial problem. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★★ 5. Publishing only the woks of regional small town authors may not be the only solution.
(F.D) ★★★★ 6. The author fails to illustrate that returning to the original mission would suffice to solve
the problem. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
7. The author fails to consider if regional small-town authors can write enough amount of
works for the company to publish, and if readers will prefer works written by small-town authors. (feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★★
publish small-town authors instead of those of big-city 论断：恢复只出本地小镇作者的书财政问题很快就会解决。因为去年90%的小说都是大城市的作者的，我们现在处于严重的财财政麻烦当中。 ·前提，我们现在的财政麻烦是因为去年90%的小大城市小说作者的书造成。没有资料证明这些书卖得不好。成本上升，书市不好都可能。 ·前提，工作重心转移的问题。论据里的问题：小说是否是出版社的大头。如果95%的书都不是小说，这90%就不能说明我们的工作重心发生了转移。 ·被忽略的前提：是否小镇上的作者出书量还有那么多。 ·结论：没有证据证明只出小镇的作者书就会解决财政问题。没说有人愿意看呀。而且拒绝大城市作家的书，这会带来问题。
37. 38, （保健/建议/递进）The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria
Public Health Council.
\"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria(3), where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds(1). Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds(2). Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work(4), we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid(5,6), a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.\" ★★★
1. The fact that people in East Meria rarely visit doctor for the treatment of colds does not
indicate a low incidence of colds. (U.C) ★★★★ 2. The author fails to establish a causal relationship between high level of fish consumption
and the low incidence of cold in East Meria. (NCR) ★★★★★ 3. The condition in East and West Meria may not be comparable. (F.A) ★★★
4. We need to know how many absences from school and work were actually caused by
colds. (I I) ★★ 5. Ichthaid may not have the same function in preventing colds as has eating fish. (H.G) ★
★★★ 6. The author does not inform us the cost, and any possible side effects of Ichtahaid.
(adv:disadv) ★★★★
Dr. Karp, an anthropologist 论断：旧观点是错误的，而且以观察为中心的文化研究方法是无效的。因为我最近对包括这个村在内的岛的采访发现，这儿的孩子谈论生理父母比村里其他成年人更多。而我的工作对伍采用以访问为中心的方法，将建立起对该岛文化与儿童抚养传统更准确的理解。 ·论断的前提不被必然保证成立。论断的前提是该村的孩子的确不由全村人抚养。但是论者没有提供任何确切的资料证明这一点。他仅凭自己尚未完成的研究进行猜测，而且也没有提供任何资料以说明他们采用的方法一定更准确。 ·论断的论据没有说服力。论者说采访中发现这一地区的孩子谈论父母比谈论其他成年人更多，但这仅仅能说明孩子与父母的接触更多，比如他们有着天然的血缘关系，比如父母比村里其他成年人更关心自己的孩子，但这都不能排除孩子的抚养是由全村人进行，比如食物喂养，技能传授等等，这并不能说明孩子不由全村人抚养。另外论者也没有告诉我们他们是否在采访中采取了措施以保证结果准确，比如采访话题是否会引导孩子谈论父母。 ·论断的结论太武断。就算旧观点是错误的，也不能由此得出他使用的研究方法是无效的。研究的正确与否，除了方法以外还受很多因素制约。比如研究者的能力等等。另外旧观点是在二十年前建立起来的，如果说该村的风俗改变了，则不能证明旧观点是错误的。 ·论者认为他们采用的采访为中心的研究方法肯定能对此问题得出更准确的理解。这与论断无关，而且论者没有提供资料证明采访中心研究适合该地区，更没有资料证明他们的研究结果是正确的。结论：论者要增加说服力还需要进一步研究当地的风俗传统
38. 180, （生产，管理/提议/并列）The following is a recommendation from the personnel
director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.
\"Many other companies(1) have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours(4,5); another graduate(2) rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year(3). Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee—a small price(6) to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly(8) by requiring all(7) of our employees to take the Easy Read course.\" ★★
1. The director commits a fallacy of false analogy, are these companies comparable? (F.A)
★★★★ 2. The condition of only two graduates tells little about the actual effect of the course.
(quantity of the sample) ★★★★
3. The director fails to establish the causal relationship between taking the Easy Read course
and the reading ability of the first graduate, and the promotion of the second graduate as well. (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) ★★★★★
4. No information about the reading speed of the first graduate before taking the course is
provided, thus we could not evaluate the effect of the course. (confusing comparison and variation) ★★★
5. We do not know what kind of reading material did the first graduate read, thus cannot
evaluate this piece of evidence. (I.I) ★★★ 6. Without providing the prices of other similar courses, the assumption that 500 dollars is a
cheap tuition is open to doubt. (lack of comparison) ★★★ 7. The director fails to convince us that all employees at Acme Publishing Company need to
improve their reading speed. Not every worker has to attain a lot of information in their workplace. (C.S) ★★★
8.The director assumes without warrant that the benefits of the course will outweigh its costs. (adv:disadv) ★★★★
Easy Read Speed-Reading Course, Publishing Company 论断：A让所有员工参加快速阅读课程会收获很大。因为很多其它工司说他们参加这个课程的员工生产力提高很大，这个课程的一个毕业生两个小时里能五百页的报告，另一个毕业生在一年之内就从经理助理升到了副总裁。显然，读得越快，你一个工作日里获得的信息就越多。另外这个课程花费只有五百元，这与从其受到的利比是非常低的。它包括在云杉城三个星期的课程和一生的快速阅读新闻信。 ·前提收获大，证据有问题。首先，两个人的例子不说明问题，这个课程的大多数学员怎么样？第二五百页那人，看的是什么内容，又记住了多少。第三当副总的那人，他升职的原因可能跟阅读完全没有关系。 ·前提，对我们是否有用。公司不同，员工不同，工作内容不同。如果我们的员工阅读已经很好了，就不用了吧。 ·结论：有用也不用所有人都去呀，还有一些岗位根本用不着快速阅读。而且还得要员工都带薪放三个星期的假。
39. 185, （经营/论断/并列）The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside
Towers apartment building to its manager.
\"One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available(3), the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints(4) about low water pressure, no problems with showers(2) have been reported since the adjustment(1). Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the 20 floors(6) of Sunnyside Towers(5) will increase our profits further(7).\" ★★182,213
1. The modification was taken place only one month ago, thus many negative effects might
not have emerged yet. (reliability of the survey) ★★★★ 2. The owner does not provide detailed information about the usage of the first five floors of
Sunnyside Towers, perhaps water flow is not a problem here at all. (I.I/selective sample) ★★★
3. Without any actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment we cannot
evaluate if the modification could actually save water. (I.I) ★★★ 4. The fact that a few people complained about water pressure does not necessarily indicate
that all other clients are satisfied with the modification. (F.D) ★★★ 5. The owner ignores many negative effects of restricting the water flow. (adv:disadv) ★★
★★ 6. The owner hastily assumes that the restricting on water flow could be successfully carried
out to all other floors of Sunnyside Tower. (C.S) ★★★★★ 7. Adopting the owner’s suggestion alone may not suffice to ensure increased profits.
(sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
showerheads 论断：对20层的S塔楼限制水流，能够进一步提高我们的利润。因为这样可以为公司节省很多钱。一个月前，下面五层楼的淋浴喷头被调整，限制了三分之一的水流量。虽然调整后具体的用水指数还不知道，这个变化显然会为公司节约大量的钱。除了一些关于水压的抱怨外，没有别的关于喷头的抱怨。 ·前提，是否节水了。既然还不知道具体的指数就不排除用水量上升的可能。因为水流变小，用水时间就会加长。另外由于水压的冲洗作用没了，这种时间上的补偿很有可能会特别长。 ·前提，没人抱怨。首先刚一个月就有了抱怨。其次楼层越高对水压要求越到。第三楼上的人可能特殊，他们用水特别多，特别喜欢大流量的洗澡。时间长必然引起楼主不高兴。 ·结论：利润，收入得靠卖房，有可能是租房，水费只是其中很小一部分成本。
40. 235, （传媒/决策/并列）The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager
of KNOW radio station.
\"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically(1), while the total number of our listeners has recently declined(2). Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music(3,4,5). Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful(6), and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics(7).\" ★6,97
1. The arguer falsely assumes that older people do not prefer rock-and-roll but favor
all-news programming. (U.A) ★★★ 2. Several other factors may also contribute to the decline in the number of listeners. (NCR)
★★★★ 3. The sales of recorded music are not a good indication of whether people prefer
rock-and-roll. (U.C) ★★★★ 4. We do not know what types of music recordings actually experienced sales decline in the
music stores, thus cannot evaluate if the decline results from decreasing popularity of rock-and-roll. (I.I) ★★★
5. The manager fails to illustrate that people who buy music recordings are basically the
same group of people who listen to music on the radio. (are the respondents representative?) ★★★ 6. The fact that news stations in neighboring cities have been successful does not indicate
that KNOW could also be successful through shifting its programming to a continuous news format. (F.A) ★★★★
7. The fact that citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics before the
election does not necessarily imply that they will also be interested in continuous news program all the time. (When was the survey conducted?) ★★★★
shift program from rock-and-roll to a continuous news format 论断：K应该别再播摇滚乐而改成滚动新闻。因为听众地区的老年人急剧上升，而听众却在下降。另外，我们地区的音乐商店报告说音乐唱片的销售在下降。最后隔壁城的滚动新闻电台挺成功，一份在最近选举前做的调查显示当地居民对更了解政治有兴趣。 ·前提，没什么人听音乐节目了。没有证据表明。老年观众上升和听众人数下降都不说明问题，因为我们不知道基数是多少。另外观众人数下降有可能跟近期节目做得不好有关系，电台应该努力把音乐节目质量提高，吸对音乐感兴趣的人。而对于老年人，他们也许不爱听摇滚乐，但也没有证据说他们会喜欢政治新闻。 ·前提，没有听音乐了。音乐商店和电台不一样，一个花钱买片子，一个免费听歌曲。商店销售下降可能跟经济萧条购买力下降以及最近没有什么新唱片发行有关系，而这种情况可能正好会使听电台音乐的人增加。 ·前提，滚动新闻节目好。没有证据说明新闻的观众比音乐的观众多，而且选举前情况特殊这种形势可能会很快改变。 ·结论：电台还是应该尽量按照现有的路子发展，因为毕竟积累了一定的经验和影响力，转变动静太大。
41. 6, （文化娱乐/论断/并列）The following was written as a part of an application for a small
business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
\"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away(1); thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself(3,7). Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe(4), and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight(2). Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment(5,6). It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.\" ★★★235
1. If the demand for a live jazz club in Monroe were as great as the applicant claims, it seems
that Monroe would already have one or more such clubs. (negative evidence) ★★★ 2. The popularity of Monroe's annual jazz festival and of its nightly jazz radio show does not
necessarily indicate that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe. (NCR) ★★★★ 3. Granted that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, we cannot ensure that those jazz fans will
attend the jazz club. (U.A) ★★★ 4. The mere fact that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe lend no significant
support to the applicant's claim. (I.E) ★★★ 5. The result of the nationwide study could not ensure that Monroe residents are willing to spend
much money on jazz entertainment. (C.S) ★★★★
6. The arguer also does not inform us how much of the $1000 goes to club admission. (V.D) ★★★
7. The scale of Monroe’s jazz market, and the profitability of the proposed club are open to
doubt. (I.I) ★★★★
Jazz club loan, city of Monroe 论断：在Monroe开一家Jazz club会很赚钱。因为该市有很多人喜爱爵士乐，爵士乐迷每年都会有很大笔开销花在与爵士乐相关的事情上，另外该市最近一家Jazz club也很远，所以它们会拥有整个市场。 ·论断很片面，赚钱除了与市场环境有关以外还与公司的经营管理密不可分。论断没有提供任何有关他们管理人员的资料，以及他们对Jazz club营销的任何设想。断然认为有好的市场环境就会赚钱。 ·论断也武断。认为喜欢爵士乐的人就会去Jazz club。而且听爵士乐的方式有很多，比如电台，比如自己在家听CD等等。电台的乐迷和参加聚会的人并不一定成为他们的消费者，而他们每年在爵士乐上的销费更不一定必须包括去Jazz club的费用。 ·论断很仓促。论断认为不叫Jazz club的俱乐部就不放爵士乐，就不是他们的竞争对手。虽然最近一家Jazz club也有65公里远，但也许就在他们旁边就有很多家俱乐部也以爵士乐为主，虽然不叫做Jazz club。另外大多数人去俱乐部的根本原因并不是听音乐，他们用爵士乐做卖点并不一定能在竞争中取胜。结论：他们应该更多地考虑如何经营俱乐部以保证他赚钱，而不能光依赖外部的环境。另外究竟人们去Jazz club的原因是什么，人们花在俱乐部上的钱又会是多少，都还有待进一步调查。
42. 140, （人事/提议/并列）The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty
Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University.
\"During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university(1), demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants(2) has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years(3). Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas'
demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson(4); without such a raise and promotion(7), we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college(5,6,8).\" ★★26,85,209,225
1. The size of the classes could hardly be a good indication of the popularity of a professor
among students. (U.C) ★★★★ 2. The amount of research grants brought by a professor could not indicate the research
abilities of that professor. (U.C) ★★★★ 3. The committee simply assumes that research grants brought by Prof. Thomas will continue
to exceed her salary in the future. (P→F) ★★★ 4. Granted that Prof. Thomas has demonstrated excellent teaching and research abilities, we
cannot guarantee that she will also be highly competent as a chairperson. (H.G) ★★★★ 5. The committee fails to demonstrate that Prof. Thomas has other choices currently, and that
she is willing to teach at another university. (U.A) ★★★
6. The committee unfairly assumes that Prof. Thomas will leave for sure if we do not
provide such a raise and promotion. (U.A) ★★ 7. Other measures could also be used to keep Prof. Thomas staying at Elm City University.
(necessity of the solution) ★★★ 8. The committee fails to illustrate that the proposed promotion and salary raise are
sufficiently attractive for Prof. Thomas. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
professor of botany,well worth salary 论断：我们建议给T教授加1万元薪水，并升任系主任。不这样做担心T教授会去另的学校。而在该教授17年的植物学教授的职业经历中，她已证明她非常值目前的年薪。她的课是学校的最大的，说明她在学生中很受欢迎。另外她过去两年每年带给学校的研究经费已经超出了她的薪水。 ·前提，T教授可以会去别的学校。论者没有给出资料为什么为有这样的担心。 ·前提，T教授值得这样的建议。首先课堂大与受学生欢迎没有必然联系，有可能她的课是必须上的。其次研究经费只在过去两年的情况，不一定以后还会有。教学能力好，不一定能当主任。琐事多，当心少了一个好教授，多了一个无能的主任。这样的情况也许也不只她一人，理由不充足当心引起其他人不满。 ·结论，如果有地儿要挖T教授，是否加薪和升职就能挡得住。学生学校的声誉，可以给她改善研究设施和环境。结论：好的教授不一定是好的主任，好的教授也不会仅因为物质条件决定去留。
43. 150, （环境/论断/对比）The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
\"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air(1,4,5). Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park(2) in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline(3) because it does not explain the worldwide decline.\" ★★★★207
1. The author does not provide information concerning the level of pollution at different
regions, thus the assumption that pollution is responsible for the decline in the numbers of amphibians everywhere is unwarranted. (I.I/C.S) ★★★★ 2. A specific case in Yosemite National Park could hardly be representative of the situation
throughout the world. (quantity of the sample) ★★★
3. The argument fails to rule out the introduction of trout as a cause for the decline in the
numbers of amphibians despite it could not explain the worldwide trend. (I.E) ★★★ 4. The author provides no direct evidence to show that it is the pollution that resulted in the
decline in the number of amphibians. (NCR) ★★★ 5. The author ignores factors other than the pollution and the introduction of trout which
could explain the decline in amphibian numbers in Yosemite. (F.D) ★★★★
decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide 论断：YNP地区两栖动物的下降不是因为鳟鱼的引入。全球范围两栖动物的数目下降，显示有全球水域和空气的污染。两次关于YNP两栖动物的研究支持我们的结论。在1915年这里有7种两栖动物，每种数目都很多。但是在1992年，这里只看得到四种，每种的数目也都显著下降。这种下降一直被归结为公园水域引入鳟鱼，而这种引入不能解释全球性的下降。 论断中有两个结论，一全球下降，显示全球有污染。二是YNP地区的原因不是因为鳟鱼。但是两个结论论者都没有提供相关的证据，我们既不知是否全球数目有下降，也不知道YNP地区是否还有其他因素。 ·两次研究仅能证明YNP地区的数目在下降，但没有得出结论。论者也没有提供任何资料表明该地区存在空气或水域污染。因而不能像论者所以为的那样支持他关于全球数目下降显示全球有污染的结论。（不是污染引起该地区下降） ·是否有全球性的数目下降，又否是存在全球性的污染，论者都没有提供任何有关的证据。而且论者也未能在这两者之间建立因果关系，我们无法得出结论，即数目下降的原因是否是因为污染，因为也无法用以证实YNP地区的下降有可能是因为污染，也就不能排除已建立的可能，即鳟鱼引起了下降。（不是污染引起了全球的下降） ·YNP地区情况完全可以不和全球相同。结论：论者的推论中有明显的逻辑错误，他将两个仍需要证实的结论，互为彼此推理过程的基础。思维极其混乱。
44. 57, （医药/论断，预言/对比）The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
\"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of
first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba(2) under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba(1). Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers(3) can be prevented as well.\" ★★★★
1. There may be many other differences between patients who took Zorba and who do not.
(I.C/ex parte information) ★★★★★ 2. The patients who took Zorba mentioned by the study may not be representative of the whole
group of patients who took Zorba. (are the respondents representative?) ★★★ 3. No evidence about the effect of Zorba on preventing first-time ulcers is provided. (I.E)
★★★★
Zorba pill,ulcer 论断：Z药对于防止溃疡复发有很强的效果，而且如果专家告诉公众，溃疡的首次发作也能被防止。因为一项对对首发溃疡服用Z药的病人的研究显示，在医嘱下服务Z的病人只有25%复发，而不服z的则有75%复发。 ·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是Z确实能防止溃疡复发。但是论者没有提供任何研究资料证明Z具有这样的作用。 ·论断的论据没有说服力。论断说服用Z药复发的只有25%，不服用Z药复发有75%。首先这份调查不科学它没有提供有关被调查者的特症，如果服用Z药的人天生体质就不容易得溃疡，就不能证明他们的低复发率是因为z药。另外两组人接受的其他医疗方法不一样也会导致复发率有差别，比如医生不同，治疗药不同。第三论者没有提供资料证明这份调查的样本人群具有代表性，我们不排除在服用Z药的人群中，那些复发溃疡的人不愿接受调查或是没有寄回问卷的可能。 ·论者的结论很武断。论者认为如果专家告诉公众这个事实，就会防止很多人首次得溃疡。如果Z能防止溃疡复发，也不必然能防止首发。如果Z防止复发的基础是溃疡病人具有了免疫力，那么它就不能帮助没得过溃疡的人。结论：论者要加强说服力还需要进一步提供有关Z在溃疡病上的具体治疗效果，并提供科学准确的有关服用人群的研究报告。
45. 152, （城市/提议/并列）The following is a letter to the head of the tourism bureau on the
island of Tria.
\"Erosion of beach sand along the shores of Tria Island is a serious threat to our island and our tourist industry. In order to stop the erosion(1), we should charge people for using the beaches(2,3,5). Although this solution may annoy a few tourists in the short term, it will reduce the number of people using the beaches and will raise money for replenishing the sand(4). Replenishing the sand, as was done to protect buildings on the nearby
island of Batia(7), will help protect buildings along our shores(6), thereby reducing these buildings' risk of additional damage from severe storms(8). And since the areas along the shore will be more attractive as a result(9), the beaches will be preserved and the area's tourist industry will improve over the long term(10).\" ★★★
1. The author fails to illustrate the extent of erosion in Tria, thus we cannot evaluate if any
measures are necessary to resolve the problem. (necessity of the solution) ★★★ 2. The author ignores other possible methods to stop the erosion. (necessity of the solution)
★★ 3. The author fails to illustrate that charging people for using the beach could effectively
stop the erosion. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★ 4. The author fails to analyze how much money should we charge to raise enough money for
replenishing the sand, and if the charge is feasible. (I.I/feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★
5. The author ignores some negative effects of the charging policy. (adv:disadv) ★★★★ 6. The author fails to demonstrate if the buildings alone our shores need to be protected.
(necessity of the solution) ★★★ 7. The fact that replenishing beach sand has served to protect shoreline buildings on nearby Batia
does not indicate that Tria would also achieve its goals by following Batia's example. (F.A) ★★★
8. The author unfairly assumes that replenishing sand would suffice to reduce the building’s
risk of damage from severe storms. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★ 9. The assumption that the proposed actions will necessarily make the seashore more
attractive is open to doubt. (U.A/sufficiency of the solution) ★★★★ 10. Adopting the actions proposed by the author might not sufficiently improve Tria’s tourist
in the long term. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
Erosion of beach sand,tourist industry 论断：我们应该向使用沙滩的人收费，这样可以降低沙滩的使用而且可为填沙攒钱。填沙可以帮助保护沙滩边的房子，降低受严重风暴的特别破坏的危险（隔壁B岛用填沙保护建筑）。（这些都可以防止侵蚀）目前海滩沙的侵蚀是对岛和旅游业的严重危胁，而如果防止侵蚀岸边地区会因此而更吸引人，海滩也会因此保留，而且长远来看旅游业也会提高。 ·降低人们使用沙滩不一定能保护沙滩，。 ·建筑被保护了不一定就使沙滩更吸引人，因而也不一定能促进旅游业。气候问题，服务问题。 2.Charging people for using the beachers does not prevent sand erosion. There many factors exist. the tourists themself can be one . Moreover, no service in beachers will result in decrease of tourists. 3. The preserved sand can do little help to the buildings in severe storms.
46. 241, （失业，就业/论断/对比）The following appeared in a memo at the XYZ company.
\"When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating resumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany's services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not(1). Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a
year(2,3,4,5). Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff(7) and larger number of branch offices(6). After all, last year(10) Delany's clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh's clients took nine(8,9).\" ★★
1. The author unfairly attributes the successful employment result of the laid-off employees
who used Delany to Delany’s assistance. (NCR) ★★★★ 2. The fact that only half of the laid-off workers found jobs within a year may not result
from ineffectiveness of Walsh. (NCR/I.C) ★★★★ 3. Many factors could explain the differences between the employment results of using each
company. (I.C) ★★★★ 4. Without any comparative data, we cannot determine if the employment result of workers
who use Walsh eight years ago are poor. (lack of comparison) ★★★★ 5. Many conditions would have changed during the past eight years. (P→C) ★★★ 6. The size of staff and number of branch offices do not necessarily indicate the quality and
effectiveness of a company’s service. (U.C) ★★★★ 7. A bigger staff may just indicate that the efficiency at Delany is lower. (negative evidence)
★★ 8. There is no significant difference between finding job within six months and within nine
months. (I.E) ★★ 9. Without detailed description of jobs found by Delany’s clients and Walsh’s clients
respectively, and without more information about their clients, we cannot evaluate which company is more effective. (I.I/I.C) ★★★★ 10. A single year's placement statistics hardly suffices to draw any firm conclusions.
(selective sample/ P→F) ★★★
offer employees assistance in resumés and interviewing skills 论断：改用便宜的W而不用D是错误的。因为八年前我们就用了W，只有一半被裁的员工在一年里找到了工作。另外D显然更好，他们人多分支机构也多就是证据。去年D的顾客平均花六个月找工作，而W的顾客要九个月。 ·前提，W不好。论据用的八年前，八年，够发生很多事情了。另外，被裁掉的员工的状况也应该考虑进去，也许以前我们裁员的标准非常严格，非常不合格的才裁掉。不像现在公司可能状况不好，挺好的员工也给裁了。 ·前提，D好。首先人多机构多不代表效率高服务好，反而可能会增加成本。第二员工的经历，不可否认，接受这项服务的人会比不接受的人有更强烈的马上找到工作的愿望。所以找的时候，会比别人格外卖力。最后，顾客平均找工作的时间，工作性质、顾客能力都会影响。 ·结论，既然W便宜，可能公司最近是不是财政紧张。若是换换也行，总比没有强吧。
47. 101, （食品/决策，预言/对比）The following appeared in a memo from the president of a
company that makes breakfast cereals.
\"In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products(1,2). By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein(3,5), we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health(4). This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits(6) and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers(7).\" ★★
1. The study does not establish a causal relationship between eating soybeans frequently and
lower cholesterol level. (confusing concurrence with causality) ★★★★ 2. Many other differences between the two groups of subjects studied may account for their
different cholesterol levels. (I.C) ★★★★ 3. The president’s assumption that soy protein will act the same on cholesterol level as
soybean is unwarranted. (U.C) ★★★★ 4. Consumers who are concerned about their health are not necessarily interested in soy
protein. (U.C) ★★★ 5. The president fails to consider possible negative effects of adding soy protein to Wheat-O.
(adv:disadv) ★★★ 6. The president does not analyze the cost of the proposed change, thus the increased profits
are not guaranteed. (adv:disadv) ★★★
7. Soy protein may be beneficial for some people, but the president’s assumption that adding
soy protein in Wheat-O will improve the health of most customers is unfounded. Not all customers are facing cholesterol related problems. (U.A) ★★★
soybeans,cholesterol 论断：新版加强黄豆的W能提高公司利润，并同时促进顾客的健康。因为最近的研究中，每周最少吃5次黄豆的人比其他不吃的人蛋固醇低很多。 ·前提：黄豆能降低人们的蛋固醇，但是没有资料证明它低。 ·论据：描述不科学，不知道是否还有其他因素使他们低。 ·结论：1、蛋固醇低不一定能促进健康，可能有其他缺点。2、好不一定有顾客买，味道不喜欢。有顾客买不一定利润上升，成本问题。结论：论者应该进一步了解黄豆在降低胆固醇方面的作用，并了解顾客对于早餐还有什么要求。
48. 232, （商业，广告/决策/并列）The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of
Eco-Power, a company that manufactures tools and home appliances.
\"Many popular radio and television commercials(1) use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised(2). Indeed, a recent study of high school students(5) showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants(3,4). Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined(6). Therefore, to boost company profits(10), we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song(7,8,9,11).\" ★
1. Radio and television commercials may use memorable tunes and song lyrics in the
advertisement because of the special characteristics of the media. (NCR) ★★ 2. The manager fails to illustrate the effect of those advertisements which use memorable
tunes and song lyrics. (I.I) ★★★★ 3. The study fails to indicate if the students who could recognize the tunes used to advertise
soft drinks and fast-food restaurant could also memorize the product and services effectively. (I.I) ★★★★
4. The students may recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food
restaurants just because these products and companies have been well established and are popular among students. (confusing the cause and the effect) ★★★ 5. High school students may not be representative of potential customers of Eco-Power.
(selective sample) ★★★★ 6. The manager unfairly attributes the decline in the sales of their home appliance to the
advertisement strategy. (NCR) ★★★★★ 7. The manager fails to consider if Eco-Power’s products are capable of being advertised
with distinctive songs. (feasibility of the conclusion) ★★★ 8. The manager fails to demonstrate the comparability between Eco-Power’s products and
soft drinks, and that between Eco-Power and fast-food restaurants. (F.A) ★★★★ 9. The manager fails to analyze the possible cost of advertising Eco-Power’s products
through featuring a distinctive song. (adv:disadv) ★★ 10. Switching to new advertisement strategy may not suffice to boost company profits for
Eco-Power. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★ 11. The manager ignores other solutions to boost company profits. (necessity of the solution)
★★★
memorable tunes and song lyrics being advertised 论断：我们应该转为用有特点的广告歌。因为最近对于高中学生的调查显示他们中85%的人能很容易地认出最流行的软饮料和快餐店的广告曲调。而我们公司过去几睥在杂志上投放了大量的广告，但销售却在下降。 ·前提，销售下跌是因为广告。没有证据证明。可能是质量，款式一直没有跟上需求。 ·前提，广告歌曲有效，论据的问题。首先调查是对高中生的，EP不可能希望高中生会是家庭用具的消费群体。而其消费群比如主妇等，是否也有对广告歌曲一样的反应，不被保证。其次，软饮料和家庭用品性质不一样，bought-once product/can make repeated buying. ·结论：费用问题要考虑，广告歌曲请人写，还要通过电视广播广告，这些都比杂志的费用高。
49. 46, （动物/论断，推测/——）Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian
province of Labrador, grizzly bears—often similar in color, but much larger—were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador(4), modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu(1), a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears(2,3). Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear. ★★★★★
1. The reliability of the research on local language and legends is open to doubt. ( credibility of
the evidence) ★★★★ 2. Although the Innu has words for two kinds of bears, we still cannot ensure that one of
them means grizzly bears. (I.E) ★★★★★ 3. The author does not provide any information about the habitat and living patterns of Innu
thousand years ago, thus it is possible that they use their word for grizzly bears to describe bears living in other regions. (I.I) ★★★
4. The 19th-century explorer may mistake black bear for grizzly bear under that certain
circumstance. ( credibility of the evidence) ★★★
eastern Canadian province,grizzly bears 论断：L地可能有过G熊，探险者的描述也可能准确地认出了这个熊。因为最近对于一在东部地区生活了几千的民族的语言和传说研究发现，他们的语言中有两个词语描述两种不同的熊，而且他们古老的传说也给这两种熊赋予不同的特征。 ·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是该民族的语言和传说中两种不同名称不同特征的熊有一个是G。但是论者没有提供资料证明，该民族对熊的特征的描述与G熊吻合。 ·论断的论据不合适。论断使用对该民族语言和传说的研究作证明，不足以说明问题。首先语言和传说以及对其的研究都加入了人的想象，这使得在科学性上没有保障。其次该民族在西部地区生活了几千年，那么在这之前他们是否有可能生活在西部地区，而关于熊的词和传说是否是在到东部来之前就有了。这些论者没有提供资料，所以无法证明该民族对于熊的单词是对东部地区的熊。该民族语言和传说研究最多证明东部曾有过两种熊，但并没有证明是G熊。 ·论者的结论太武断。该民族在东部生活了几千年，他们的语言和传说中有G熊，并不能说明十九世纪的时候东部地区也有G熊。而十九世纪的探险者当时被吓到了，他的判断是可能不真实的。论者得出他可能认出了熊的结论太武断。结论：论者要想加强说服力，还需要提供该民族传说中关于熊的特征是否与G熊相同，传说是否是在东部地区的经验上形成的。但是要得出令人信服的结论，论者还是需要提供具体的文字记载或是科学研究。
50. 160, （生命科学/提议/——）As people grow older, an enzyme known as PEP increasingly
breaks down the neuropeptide chemicals involved in learning and memory(1). But now, researchers have found compounds that prevent PEP from breaking neuropeptides apart. In tests, these compounds almost completely restored lost memory in rats(2). The use of these compounds should be extended to students(3,4) who have poor memory and difficulty in
concentrating(5,6)—and therefore serious problems(7) in school performance(8). Science finally has a solution for problems neither parents nor teachers could solve. ★★★
1. The author fails to illustrate that it is the breakdown of neuropeptide that results in lost
memory. (NCR) ★★ 2. The effect of the compound on rat memory might not necessarily take place on humans.
(F.A) ★★★★ 3. The author fails to consider if the compound has any side effect. (adv:disadv) ★★★★ 4. The author fails to prove that the breakdown of the neuropeptide will also occur among
young students. (U.A) ★★★★ 5. The author unfairly assumes that it is the breakdown of neuropeptide that results in poor
memory and difficulty in concentrating among young students. (NCR) ★★★ 6. Difficulty in concentrating does not necessarily have any relation with poor memory, thus
the assumption that the compound will also resolve the problem of concentrating is unwarranted. (U.C) ★★★★
7. Students’ problems in school performance may result from various causes, thus using the
compound alone might not sufficiently resolve these problems, even if the compound does have significant effect on memory. (sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
8. The author ignores other better solutions to address problems in school performance.
(sufficiency of the solution) ★★★
enzyme known as PEP 论断：这个混和物的应用应该扩大到记忆不好，不容易集中精力的学生身上。因为最近研究者们发现这个混和物可以防止PEP分解某种神经。在试验中，这些混和物几乎使免子恢复了所有记忆。（PEP是一种酶，随着人变老它会逐渐分解某种和学习、记忆有关的神经） ·兔子跟人不一样，实验最终还需要在人身上进行。 ·PEP分解神经是否在青少年时期就会发生。 ·学生记忆不好和不集中精力的主要原因不是生理原因，懒惰、贪玩是老师家长解决不了的。 ·会不会有副作用。
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